Peak Oil and Reverse Migration in India
Item
- Title
- Peak Oil and Reverse Migration in India
- Creator
- T Vijayendra
- Date
- July 30, 2008
- extracted text
-
Peak Oil and Reverse Migration in India
T. Vijaycndra
What is peak oil?
Peak oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more
specifically, the peak in global oil production. Oil is a finite, non-rcnewablc resource, one
that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a
half. The rate of oil 'production', meaning extraction and refining (currently about 84 million
barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last century. Once we have used up about
half of the original reserves, oil production becomes ever more likely stop growing and
begins a terminal decline, hence 'peak'. The peak in oil production does not signify 'running
out of oil', but it does mean the end ofcheap oil, as we switch from a buyers' to a sellers'
market. For economies leveraged on ever increasing quantities ofcheap oil, the consequences
may be dire. Without significant successful cultural reform, severe economic and social
consequences seem inevitable.
From all the evidence available, peak oil has already occurred. It is affecting our society
through shortages of petroleum products and all round increase in prices. In this article we
will specifically look at reverse migration in India, though in some cases such as coal mining
rural migration will continue to increase.
Migration and Reverse Migration
We will conisder migration under following heads:
1. Normal/voluntary rural urban migration
2. Seasonal Migration
3. Forced Migration (Regulated)
4. Forced Migration (unregulated)
. 5. White Collar
6. Warlord, brigands and floating population
Normal/Voluntary Rural Urban Migration
India has an urban population of 300 million, greater than the population of USA or for that
matter greater than any country except China. They live in a total of 400 urban agglomerates.
180 million people live in 35 cities that have a population grater than a million. The three
metros, Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi have more than 10 million whereas Hyderabad and
Bengaluru have more than 5 million.
Most of urban population growth, apart from normal population growth has been contributed
by rural urban migration in the twentieth century. It has been distributed over industry (jute
and cotton to begin with and later in the manufacturing sector), mining, service (including
transport-such as rickshaw pullers, tongawallahs and now drivers). Very often the new
migrant begins in service sector and then some of them move onto industry. Some of the
‘higher’jobs are obtained by the second generation and the third, fourth and so on. These are
not in that sense migrants. Tea and coffee estates are special cases of rural-rural migration of
permanent nature.
Reverse migration has been mainly due to ‘reforms' or ‘structural changes’ in capital after the
post liberalisation era in the 1990s. I lowever even before that the
traditional sectors of cotton and jute went through these processes and a large number of
workers migrated back to rural areas. In West Bengal this process started even earlier, after
the recession of 66-67 and continued through ‘flight of capital’ during the first decade of the
left regime.
Post liberalisation saw a massive decline of manufacturing sector all over the country and job
losses. I lowever by this time the capacity of rural areas to take them has shrunk because the
reforms have affected the rural areas too with large scale farmers suicide being reported from
large areas throughout the country. True service, IT and garment export sectors increased but
in terms of number of persons employed there was net a decline.
With Peak Oil there will be a decline in road transport industry leading to all round recession
and job loss. It will affect all sectors. I lowever reverse migration will occur only among those
sections of population who have a relatively secure base in the rural areas. These will be
largely those who had permanent jobs in the organised sector. Even then the stress in rural
areas will be great in terms of water and cooking fuel. Massive transformation in agricultural
practices will occur. Chemical fertilisers and pesticides will vanish rapidly, ground water
will be unavailable because of fall in level and lack of electricity for the pumps. Draught
animals will increase. As we said above some migration will continue in power sector,
particularly in coal.
Seasonal Migration
Both rural-urban and rural-rural migration occur. As a rule almost all first generation migrant
visit (heir villages during harvest/festival season. The bulk of seasonal migration is in
construction industry with specific groups like brick kiln workers having a fairly well
established calendar. Rural-rural migration takes place from Bihar, (J. P„ Chhatisgarh, Orissa
etc. to farms in Panjab and Haryana.
In post liberlisation period there has been a boom in this sort of migration first due to boom in
the construction industry and secondly the ‘push’ factor in he rural sector increased
considerably due to adverse terms of trade in rural-urban exchange.
Post Peak oil will definitely witness a huge decline in this kind of migration. The down trend
in the construction industry is already visible. With the tendency of‘relocalisation’ of
agriculture due to increase in transport costs rural-rural migration will also decline. In terms
of number this will be in terms of millions and will pose the biggest challenge to the rural
sector.
Forced Migration (Regulated)
These arc what has come to be known as ‘development oustees’. d'hat is they are those rural
people whose lands have been acquired for some development project (dams, mines, firing
range, industry etc.) and have been given a ‘rehabilitation package’. These can include land,
money, job or being relocated in an urban slum. In practically all cases these people have to
leave their homes against their wishes (hence forced) but some semblance of compensation is
tried (hence regulated). In most cases their lives are shattered, they face economic, social,
cultural and health insecurities and end up living at a level far below what they were used to
live.
Post liberalisation has seen a dramatic increase in their numbers because the state got
enormous liberty added by the middle class consent and the parliament and the judiciary
being silent/voeal supporter of this gross violation of human rights.
Post Peak Oil probably will see a decrease in their numbers as many of the projects will
simply get abandoned and new projects will not even get a head start. Except in the power
sector, especially in coal sector.
Forced Migration (Unregulated)
These arc actually results of'resource wars' in the post Peak Oil era and will increase with
increasing ferocity and human misery. Salwa Judam is a prime example. As is well known it
is not just a vigilante movement to light the Naxalites and the State out sourcing its police
needs. It is to control and use the natural resources of the region. The tribals living in the
camps or worse still who had to migrate to Andhra Pradesh are war refugees, except that they
are not being recognised so and they get no relief. Now on there will not be any rehabilitation
package but just war on people to get access to mineral resources, be it coal, iron orc,
uranium, nickel and copper and so on. These all have peaked or about to peak and there will
be a desperate struggle to get control of them.
White Collar
These are not so large in number but are highly visible and will suffer in a big way in the post
Peak Oil era. Their numbers dramatically increased due to boom in the IT sector and finance
sector and sub prime consumerism a la USA. A huge sub prime consumer economy came
into being in the metros. So salesmen, shops and malls, restaurants came into being. They
will face a collapse and they will have nowhere to go. Foreclosures, bankruptcies and
suicides will increase with the associated miseries.
Warlords, Brigands and Floating Population
Unless planned corrective measure are taken right away and a ordered transition to a low
energy consumption society is palnned and executed the future looks very bleak. And there is
no sign that either the Indian state or the civil society is even aware of the problem. So the
immediate future looks grims. As Irfan Habib desribed in Mughal India, alter the death of
Aurangjeb in 1707 India plunged into a Iwless society. As agriculture became unviable, the
peasants left their land and joined Shivaji's army to get one fourth of the produce of other
peasants’ land. But then those peasants too left the land and joined the army and so on. A
period of complete chaos began marked by local warlords and the ‘thugees’(way side
brigands) till 1757 when the Company won the Plassey war and got the Bengal Diwani. So
also may be by 2030 or 2040 the society may stabilise at a lower level of energy
consumption.
30. 07. 2008
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