Population versus Resources - An Apparent Problem
Item
- Title
- Population versus Resources - An Apparent Problem
- Creator
- Anant R S
- Date
- 1987
- extracted text
-
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--MSSI6© FRIEND GIRDLE I 13TH
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MEET;
1987. '
. - 26-27TH JANUARY.----------
POPULATION VERSUS RESOURCES-AN APPARENT PROBLEM
-Anant R.S.
Many people believe that the increasing population in
the world,specially in the Third World can not be properly
supported because we just do not have enough resources to do this.
According to this belief, unless the population-increase in the
countries like India is rapidly and drastically controlled, we
would not be able to achieve a descent life for all our countrymen;
i
on the contrary we may.end up in a catestrophy. In this somewhat
hurriedly written note, it is my intention to critically examine
this apparent problem of Population versus Resources-population
eating so much into availability of resources that descent human
life for everybody remains a pipe-dream.
The historical experience in the West
It would be quite revealing to go into the historical
e.xperience of the problem of population versus resources.
Malthus
put his theory of population explosion in 1798./1/It was used as a
political weapon against the French Revolution and against various
liberal, radical theories which sought to explain the poverty in
Europe in terms of the decaying feudal order. Malthus's theory,
however, explained poverty in the " Natural law " of population
growth.
The feudal, oligarchy therefore used this theory in.its
political struggle.
Malthus was rewarded with a professorship at
the East India Company's College.
History proved Malthus wrong.
With the growth of capitalism, there was an all-round increase in
food-production and there were not those kinds of famines due to
shortage in food-production which Malthusian theory had predicted.
In the twentieth century, in the West, there was so much
increase in'food-production compared to the purchasing power of
the mass of the people that the era of notorious schemes of giving
incentives to farmers to reduce food production ( to prevent the
steep slump in food-prices and the resulting bankruptacies ) began
and banished Malthusian theory finally and once for all from
Western Societies.
The Experience of Colonial India
Though disproved, laughed at and banished from the West,
the Malthusian theory was imported into the Colonial countries to
explain away the Increasing poverty and hunger in these countries.
It is naw well-known and well-established that the increase in
.2.
I
poverty and hunger in India was due to the-
" Plunder II" through
different mechanisms, of the Indian society by the British Colo
nialists.
But the defenders of this colonial rule attributed
this poverty and hunger to overpopulation in India.
Rajani Palme
Dutt in his " India Today 11 ( the famous, classic on British Rule
in India and the movement against it ) gives a classic account of
this story of " overpopulation " in British India.
better than quote him briefly.
I can not do
Vera Anstey, one Malthusian
economist wrote 11 Where is the Indian Malthus who will inveigh
against the devastating torrent of Indian children ? " ( AnsteyEconomic Development of India " p.475).
Another such economist
L.C.A.Knowles declared " India?seems to illustrate the theories
of Malthus..... " /1-a/
Dutt gives incisive statistics and expert opinion by a
V
number of British and other academicians ( including those who
believed in Malthus ) to show how foolish it was to take a position
that Indian poverty was due to overpopulation.
I would only quote
a couple of key statistics 5 During 1872-1931, the population
increase in India was 30% whereas in England and Wales an increase
of 77% took place, during the same period.
In the rest of the
Europe also, ( except France ) the population-growth was faster
than that in India during this petiod.
As for population density
in 1941, the population density was 246 per square mile in India as
compared to 703, 702,'639, 348 per square mile for England and
Wales, Belgium, Holland, Germany respectively.
As for food produ-
ction-the production of foodgrains increased by 19% during 1891-19^k»
as compared to a population-increase of 9.3 % during the same period. /2/
Along with economic exploitation, there was physical
deprivation of the Indian people by the colonial rulers.
In spite
of famine conditions food-exports from India to Britain went on
increasing from £ 0.86 million in 1849 to £ 3.8 million in 1858,
£ 7.9 million by 1877, £ 9.3 million by 1901, and £ 19.3 million,
in 1914, or an increase of twentytwo times over ! /3/
Population Vs Resources in Independent India
Though proved once again to be in the wrong, even in the
context of the Third World, this theory was once again revived in
a revised form and is being propogated vigorously in India since
the early sixties to explain away the increasing unemployment,
poverty and hunger.
But again facts belie
the propogandists1
hue and cry against the " crushing weight of the teeming millions."
Before we briefly enumerate these facts, let me make it clear that
*
.3.
I am not assuring that relative rapid increase in population is not
Even if development occurs not in a distorted
and hence truncated form ( as has been happening in India ) but in
a planned and healthy way, even then population-problem may perhaps
be one of the obstacles in such a development, But to be .sure,
at all a problem,
it is not at all a primary and one of the most important causes
of increasing poverty oven in today’s social system, Even today,
the " Population-explosion " is basically a symptom and not a
cause of distorted and truncated development.
Let us now see whether the increasing unemployment,
poverty... etc. in-Independent India is duo to
" Population - explosion. "
The population in India has increased from 46.1 crores
in 1951 to 65.8 crores in 1981 - i.e. by 83% /4/ ; whereas the
foodgrain production has increased from 48.1 million tonnes to
113.4 million tonnes during the same period, /5/ i.e. an increase
of 135%.
The per capita, availability ( which includes production
plus imports, however, imports have been negligible during last
15 years ) of foodgrains has increased brom 395 Gms. per day to
454 Gms per day during the same period. /6/ But due to economic
inequality, this food is not distributed evenly and hence there
is extensive malnourishment due to extensive poverty.
The unemployment in India has increased many more times
than the population-increase—The number of job-seekers registered
with employment exchange increased from 3.29 lakhs in 1951 to
40.69 lakhs in 1970, to 165.84 lakhs in 1981; to 262.7 lakhs in
1985 1 /7/
Though there are many limitations to these data,
( like any other Indian data ) there is absolutely no doubt that
the unemployment has increased at‘.a fantastically faster rate than
the population-increase.
This unemployment problem is not due to
population-increase but due to the very pattern of growth of the
Indian economy.
Due to population-increase the population-density in
India has increased from 117 per Sq.Kftu in 1951 tp 216 per Sq.Eim.
in 1981. /8/
It -is still less than thaf of some of the rich
countries—U.K. (224), West Germany (244) and of course Japan (327)./9/
Thus the propaganda that India is a terribly overpopulated country
and hence is poor is false. Incidentally, there is no relation
.1
.4.
between population-density of a country and its economic status.
For example, most of the African countries are very thinly
populated ( e.g. Ethopia 35 persons per Sq.Km.) and yet are
extremely, poor; so is the case with some of the Asian countries
(e.g. Burma 54 persons per Sq.Km. ) /10/ Many of the^Jguropean
countries are much more densly populated and still far better off.
The poverty, unemployment, that we see in India today
is thus not because of 11 too much of population 11 as compared
to the resources to support it. As seen above^per capita avair
lability of food has increased; but yet there is extensive mal-
nourishment because of the inequality in our existing system.
The industrial production has, of course, increased many times
compared to the production of foodgrains but the standard of
living of the majority of the Indian people has hardly increased
JiQ- any appreciable extent; for a large section, there has
actually been a decline.
Smtaglrjon with China :-
.
Apart from inequality, the Indian economy suffers from
the problem of distorted and hence truncated development. India
has vast natural resources and trained .human-power but these
resources are not being utilized rationally because of a myriad
Since China and India are
of vested, exploitative interests.
quite comparable for a number of reasons, a comparison with China
would give an indication of what can be achieved by India. One
finds that the people's Republic of China ( PRC ) has achieved
a far rapid development of its resources as compared to India.
It is difficult to measure the development of resources by a
But the following two tables would
mere couple of indicators,
give some idea.
TABLE-I. /Il/ : Sectoral Growth Rates
!
1965—1984.
( Annual percentage increase )
f—=4
Agriculture
197 31980
19801984
19651973
Industry
19731980
3.7
2.0
2:8
3.7
5.0
2.8
2.8
10.1
12.1
8.6
" 1965( Country! 1973
( India
( China
(
( Contd
)
I980-)
1984 )
9.3 j
r
t
. 5»
TABLE-11. /12/
Steel and Crude Oil in
Production of Coal ,
India and China.
( in Million
tonnes. )
STEEL
1950________ 1985
(______________ CO AL
( Country) 1950
1985
(
( India
34.90 144.80
( (1951-84)
(
( China
( (1950-85) 70.00 813.00
(---------
1
J
CRUDE OIL
1950
1985'
1.10
5.70
0.26
30.20
2.00
47.00
1.00
125.00
J
)
)
\
)
)
In the Industrial sector as a whole, the industrial
production in PRC has increased at an annual growth rate of
12.2% during 1950 to 1985, /13/ whereas in India, this rate
was only 5.8 %. /14/
It is clear from these statistics that
both in Agriculture and (much more) in Industry, the PRC has
achieved a much more rapid increase in the development of
its resources.
China has used this development of its productive
capacities in a much more rational way. This is evidenced
by the fact that though the average per capita income in PRC
is not much higher compared to India, there is not the kind
of poverty, hunger, squalor, unemployment as we see in India.
This has been reported by all sorts of analysts and visitors
to China.
I
do' nt believe that the Chinese development is an
ideal one;
far from it, there are certain nagging problems
with it. But if PRC has achieved this much, starting from a
very backward economy encircled by a hostile capitalist world,
India,
( after its revolution ) can now achieve far better,
starting from a better base
and with perhaps a better under
standing also. The problem of " not enough resources " to
support the increasing population is now potentially much more
superfluous than hitherto.
( Contd....
.6.
DRASTIC CHANGE IN CHINA'S POPULATION-POLICY
The Chinese government, during last few years, has drastically
changed its attitude to population-growth and has started a
vigorous population-control programme.
We must answer the
question : Does not the new population-policy in China vindicate
the view point that population must be vigorously controlled in
developing countries ?
Let me try to answer this question
Earlier Policy & New Policy s
The Policy of the Government of the newly liberated
People's Republic of China ( P.R.C.) was to denounce the
" neo-malthusian bogey " of population explosion but at the
same time to spread the knowledge of the contraceptive tech
nology and even to control the rate of
population-increase.
According to Chi Lung, one of the representatives of the PRC
in the 1973 ECAFE meeting in Tokyo—" Population increase in
a planned way is China's established policy. We follow such
a policy not because the question of 'Over-population' exists
in China.
In China,
social production is carried out in a
planned way and this requires that the population increase is
planned too.
It is also necessary to have a planned population
increase in order to promote thorough emancipation of women,
care of children, mothers and women; and bring up and educate
the younger-generation well, and improve the people's health
and bring about national prosperity..................... " /15/
But from 1970's, this policy has changed; pressure
was put on the people to have not more than two children per
couple.
Further drastic change occurred from 1980,—the policy
changed over to ' Only One Child Per Couple.' Does this new
policy stem from a real resource constraint or a false limita
tion imposed on themselves by the decision-makers ? If we go
into the reasons given by the Chinese demographers who advocate
this new policy, we would get some inkling into this puzzling
drastic change.
" China's population problems and prospects " is an
official publication from China which takes a review of the
Chinese population policy from the new angle and advocates :
' One Child Per Couple ' policy.
It says s " Considering the
present area of cultivated land, pasture-land and surface-water
in China and taking into account the speed and level of agricu
ltural development attained abroad over the last hundred years,
j
I
I
.7.
we estimate that a century from now, China1s total food production
could increase to be 150 per cent above that of today.
Taking
into account both the average physical characteristics of the
Chinese people and the proportion of protein in the diet of
industrially and agriculturally developed countries, we estimate
that each person in China should consume about 85 gms. of protein
per day.
( At present the level is about 56 gms.)
from both animal and plant foods.
Protein comes
The proportion of animal protein
in the French diet is 70% and in the United States, it is 80 %.
In China today, the protein-intake is comparatively low. It should
gradually increase, as production improves, to reach the amount
adequate for each person each day, with animal protein making
upto 70-80 per cent of the total. On this basis, a century
from now, the population should not be more than 680 million."/16/
(Note that this figure is much lower than the current population
of China of about 1000 million.)
Unscientific basis :
This estimation is unscientific-nutritionwise,healthwise.
The average per capita availability of food in PRC today is suffi-
cient-quantitatively and qualitatively. Vaclav Smil’s calculations
show that in 1983, the daily per capita availability of food energy
in China was 2710 Kilo Calories with 77 grams of proteins including
11 Gms.(14%) from animal sources./17/
Ramesh Awasthi /17.a/ in
a recent compilation, quotes the foodgrain availability in China
in 1983 as 669 gms. per capita compared to 450 gms. in India.
Smil has calculated the daily per capita energy and protein requi
rements of the Chinese population on the basis of FAO/WHO recomme
ndations. These are: 2210 K.Cal. of food-energy. 55 grams of
dietary proteins-with the assumption of the current Chinese pattern
of diet./18/
It is clear that on an average the Chinese diet
today is more than sufficient nitritionally. Where is the great
need of increasing the protein-consumption to 85 grams per day ?
To be sure, 1983 was one of the best years as far as
food-availability in PRC is concerned, because food-production in
PRC has started rising very rapidly from 1978 onwards.
But even
during the earlier period of relatively rapid population growth
accompanies by not much more rapid growth in food-production, the
daily per-capita
availability
of food was 2075 K.Cal.
in 1957, 1900 in 1960-61 ( after a period of " probably world’s
worst drought.") 2045 in 1964-66 and 2125 in 1969-71. /19/
t
.8.
Because of much less inequality as compared to India, China
didn't experience the kind of extensive malnourishment (except
during 1958-61) as we see in India.
There was a need to increase
food production at a faster rate to abolish malnourishment
altogether and to have safety margins for drought conditions.
This has been achieved from 1978 with continuous rapid increase
in food production through economic reforms in agriculture.
There is thus no rationale for enforcing the one-child-norm
except for this unwise, unhealthy projections by their
policy-makers for protein requirements in the future.
The most important problem lies in the aim of of the
China's new policy makers to get 70-80 % of the proteins from
Animal source. This is clearly 11 aping af the West ” since
™
nutritionally so much of Animal protein is not at all required.
On the contrary this much of animal food will produce ill-health.
The American Medical Association has recommended a one-third
reduction in the meat consumption of the American population 1
Animal foods are ecologically extremely taxing as compared to
vegetarian foods.
It takes 20 & 8 Lbs. of grain to be fed to
the animals to get 1 Lb. of beaf and pork respectively 1 /20/
It is therefore necessary to keep the proportion of animal foods
to the minimum necessary.
If the Chinese decision-makers abandon
the perspective of aping the dietary habits created by Agribusiness
in the West, then they need not opt for the current dastardly
policy of enforcing
" One Child Per Couple."
As has happened elsewhere in the world with increasing
modernization, education and general development, the Chinese
population would increasingly adopt a small-family norm.
That
the birth-rate has already markedly come down from 41.3 per
thousand in 1950 to 21.3 per thousand in 1982 has been confirmed
by an independent American academic study./21/
k part of it has
been due to incentives and disincentives from 1970s.
But socio
economic development has certainly played a a direct op indirect
role in the success of their population-control programme.
With these achievements on the food-front and in birthcontrol, there is no real need for PRC to adopt the drastic policv
of 'one child per couple.' This new mistaken policy therefore does
not prove that the theory of
" population explosion " is valid.
.9.
THE PROBLEM AT THE GLOBAL-LEVEL
There are many statistical projections meant to
frighten us to believe that if the population-increase in
developing countries is not drastically curtailed, the world
would face a catastrophe because " there are not just enough
natural resources "
to support the projected world-population
of 48 billion by 2100 A.D. from the current level of 4.6 billion.
Firstly it is wrong to make such purely arithmetical projections
to draw strategic conclusions from them :
Increasingly condu
cive socio-economic conditions and hence the desire to control
births, as well as the means to do so is a part of modern
social development.
Why do we assume that the third-world
people would continue to remain at the deprived end of the
development process, as is happening today, and hence would
continue to have high birth-rates ?
Even if they do, even
then the real threat to world's resources would.not come from
these marginalized toilers.
Take for example, the case of energy.
Schumachar in his famous book,
'Small Is Beautiful1'has shown
that in 1966, the " rich " countries accounted for 31% of the
world's population but consumed 87% of the energy utilized in
the world.
He. now argues--suppose the population of these
developed and developing countries grows at a rate of 1.25%
and 2.50% per. year respectively and their fuel consumption per
head increases at the annual rate of 2.25% and 4.5% respectively;
with these rates, by 2000 A.D. the world would require thrice as
much additional energy as in 1966 and out of this increase, more
than two-thirds would be consumed by the rich countries 1
I do not share Schumacher* s overall perspective; but his
calculations show how wrong it is to talk about the need for
drastic reduction in the birth-rates in the third-world "to save
the world from catastrophe.11
As far as India is concerned, even
though we are the second most populous country in the world, our
share in the World's commercial energy consumption is only 2.1 %
(1985), whereas the share of the U.S.A., with a population amounting
to not more than-a third of India’s, is 24.3 % L /22/
The per capita availability of calories at the world-level
was in 1985, 111% of the requirement./23/ But ..due to unequal dist
ribution, millions and millions are underfed, lakhs of children die
due to malnouri shinent,
on,the one hand whereas the developed world
• consumes millions of tonnes of grain in a wasteful and unhealthy
way.
If the current state of affairs is changed into a sane and
«
.10.
egalitarian society, there is no need to increase food production
any more.-Per capita energy demand increases many many times with
industrialisation but the per capita food requirement should not
increase beyond a level if we are not to fetch ill-health with
extra calories.
MILITARY WASTES
Most of the conventional discussions on resource-const
raints do not mention, leave aside question, the mind boggling
military expenditures." World Military and social Expenditures"
1985 by Ruth Sivard (just quoted above) gives a very good account,
of the military expenses the world over.
Let me quote a few
figures from this compilation
World military expenditure as expressed in the value of
U.S. dollars in 1982 (thus eliminating the influence of inflation)
increased from 339 billion dollars in 1960 to 709 billion dollars
in 1983 i.e. it
:
more than double.
The share of the developing
countries in the military expenses during the same period increased
from 33 to 152 billion dollars (at constant-1982 prices) i.e. a
more than four-fold increase, (p.34)
Compare these figures with
the requirement of only 20 billion dollars to provide safe water
sanitation to all of those in the 'world Who do not have it today 1
(p.33)
During this same period, arms-exports (most of- which go
to developing countries) by developed world increased from 2.5 to
33.5 billion dollars (p.34) whereas per capita ajjd (most of it i^
in the form of loans) from developed to developing countries did^
not rise in real terms (i.e./we discount inflation) at all in
these 24 years 1
(p.23).
In the developing countries, military
expenditures per soldier in 1982 averaged 9810 US Dollars, compared
to educational expenditures of only 91 US dollars per school-age
child, (p.29)
India's military expenditure shot up from 312 crores in
1961-62 to 816 crores in 1963-64 j^4^-■ due to the Indo-China war.
It however'continued to rise rapidly in the late sixties and 70*s.
During last few years, there is again a fantastic rise from 2472
crores in 1975-76 to 7136 crores in 1984-85. /25/
This is due to
" Modernization of the Indian Defence Capabilities." In reality
India is becoming a big military power in Asia to protect 1 Indian
interest'. hero&abrdad. India's military-expenditure in 1982 was
more than its expenditure on education and more than three times
its expenditure on Health. /26/
t
*
.11.
Even if there is partial disarmament
Some may argue that it.is utopian to think that there
will be complete disarmament.
But even if partial disarmament
occurs, plenty of resources would be released for abolishing
poverty, unemployment, ill-health.
At any rate, in any case,
nuclear weapons must be abolished from this planet.
The nuclear
powers have today enough nuclear weapons to kill every person
in the world 12 times 1 /27/
The danger of nuclear war even
by accident has been increasing day by day./28/
armament is therefore an absolute must.
Nuclear dis
There has been a great
World-wide movement towards this goal and in the recent Riekjavik
Summit, the USA and USSR almost came to an agreement to reduce
nuclear weapons by 50% (1) to begin with.
Billions of dollars
would be set free even if only* nuclear disarmament takes place
and hundreds of millions of-dollars more,if disarmament, of
conventional weapons also takes place.
There have been many estimates of the impact of partial
disarmament.
Let us see a- couple of typical of such estimates :
" The U.N, experts estimate that 8-10 per cent of world military
expenditure would be enough to eliminate hunger, disease,
illiteracy. .....it would be possible to finance eight major
projects similar to the WHO-programme for eliminating smallpox
on earth solely with the funds allocated by the U.S. Air-force
'for developing and designing the F-16 fighter.
The cost of one
Trident Submarine equals that of teaching 16 million children in
developing countries for one year./29/
A comprehensive study
made by a study-group of the United Nations in- 1980 has registered
that " by the year 2000 even a modest degree of military restraintthe scenario modelled only assumed a progressive decline from
current levels in the share of military expenditure in gross
national product ( GNP ), not a decline in the level of world
military expenditure in absolute terms-could result in 3.7 %
increase in world GNP, a larger capital stock, and an increase
in world agricultural output, to mention only a few of the mere
obvious economic '/gains." /30/
In conclusion, one may say-that the talk of " PopulationExplosion 11 leading to the problem of ' resource-constraint 1 is
only a bogey to hide the bankruptcy, of the existing social-order.
( References continued....)
r
1
. 12.
REFERENCES . . .
Boseirup Mogens- Fear of doomsdayspast & present,
/I/
Population and Development Review, Vol.4, No.l,
pp.133-143.
This is a good short account of the
controversy during that period.
/1-a) s
As quoted by R.P.Dutt, India Today, People's
Publishing House, 2nd edition, 1947, p.43.
/2/
s
R.P.Dutt, op.cit. pp.45-47.
/3/
?
R.P.Dutt, op.cit.p.106.
Basic statistics Relating to the Indian Economy Vol.I
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Bombay, Aug1 86,
/4/
/7/
( C.M.I.E. )
Basic Statistics...op.cit. table 13.10.
Basic Statistics...op.cit. table 8.1.
i
Basic Statistics...op.cit. table 9.9.
/8/
/9/
Basic Statistics.•.op.cit. table 1.1.
" World economy & India's place in it," C.M.I.E.,
Table 1.1.-
/5/
/6/
October'86; table 4.1.
/10/ :
/ll/ :
/12/ :
World economy...op.cit. table 4.1.
World economy...op.cit. table 3.3B
World economy...op.cit. table 3.10-1 and
Basic Statistics...op.cit tables-4.9, 4.17 & 16.3.
/13/ :
/14/ :
World economy...op.cit. table 3.10
Indian Economy since 1950-51, CMIE, Feb'86, p.2.1(iii).
/15/ :
Population Theory'’ in China (Translations from
" Renkou Lilun ") Ed. H.Yuan Tien; M.E.Sharpe Inc.
*
White Plains New York; Croom Helm; London, 1980, p.9.
/16/ :
China's Population Problems & Prospects by Liu Zheng,
Song Jian and others; New World Press, Beijing,1981,p.29.
/17/ :
Vaclav Smil, Food Production and Quality of Diet in China,
Population and Development Review, Vol.12, No.l, March'86,T.4
/17-a/
Dr. Ramesh Awasthi, India and China-a comparison; "Frch
/IB/ :
/19/ :
/20/ :
/21/ ;
/22/ :
/23/ :
News letter," Bombay, Vol.I, No.l.
Vaclav Smil, op.cit. tables 8, 10 and p.40.
Smill op.cit. table No.2
" How the other half dies," Pelican, 1977, page 305.
Rapid population change in China, 1952-1982, National
Academy Press, Washington, 1984.
World economy...op.cit. table 6.3
World Military and Social Expenditures, 1985; 10th Anniver
sary edition, Ruth Leger Sivard, World Priorities, Wash
ington, 1985, p.39.
•>
.13.
/24/ 2
Suhas Chattopadhyay 2 Inflation, stagnation & crisis....
/25/ 2
Social Scientist, No.29, p.7.
Basic statistics...op.cit. table No.7.ISA.
/26/ :
World Military and......... op.cit., p.36.
/27/ 2
/28/ 2
World Military and......... op.cit., p. 5.
Medico-Friend Circle Bulletin, No.122, November, 1986,
/29/ :
New Delhi, p. 5.
R. Faramazyan; Disarmament and the economy; Progress
Publishers, Moscow; 1981, p. 140-141.
/30/ s
U.N. Disarmament Yearbook, 1981, p.355.
Position: 573 (9 views)