AN ANALYSIS OF HUMAN FERTILITY DECLINE IN INDIA, 1961-86
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AN ANALYSIS OF HUMAN FERTILITY DECLLNE IN INDIA, 1961-86
1
Mahinder Chaudhry
Royal Military College of Canada
Kingston, Ontario
(613) 541-6425 (direct)
(613) 541-6423 (Secretary)
(613) 547-3053 (Facsimile)
XXIst International Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population, 20-27 September, 1989, New Delhi; Session F.l Patterns of Fertility Change in
Asia; Chair: Dr. I. Alam, Committee on Comparative Analysis of Fertility and Family
Planning, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
120200; Wednesday, 20th September, 1989 at 15.00 hours.
Revised August 1989
AN ANALYSIS OF HUMAN FERTILITY DECLINE IN INDIA, 1961-86
Mahinder Chaudhry
Royal Military College of Canada
Kingston, Ontario
(613) 541-6425 (direct)
(613) 541-6423 (Secretary)
(613) 547-3053 (Facsimile)
XXIst International Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population, 20-27 September, 1989, New Delhi; Session F.l :Pattems of Fertility Change in
Asia; Chair: Dr. I. Alam, Committee on Comparative Analysis of Fertility and Family
Planning, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
120200; Wednesday, 20th September, 1989 at 15.00 hours.
Revised August 1989
An Analysis of Human Fertility Decline in India, 1961-86
SUMMARY: At the national level in India, the crude birth rate (CBR) declined by 10.55
points, from 43.04 in 1961 to 34.57 in 1986. The changing patterns of marital fertility and
marital status contributed to the net observed change by 61 and 36 percent, respectively. In
contrast, the proportion of reproductive age women, 15-49 years, in the total population raised
the CBR by 11 percent. The distribution of women,15-49 years, contributed only 6 percent;
the unexplained residual of 8 percent is attributed to the joint-effect term, which is not
allocated to the four determinants.
When analyzed by the selected sub-periods, the marital fertility indicates no
uniform pattern: (i) there is no evidence of any marital fertility decline between 1961 and
1971; (ii) a significant decline occurred (5.6 points) between 1971 and 1981, most of it during
1971-76; (iii) the decline almost stalled between 1976 and 1981 and the marital fertility
experienced a very marginal change (0.5 point); (iv) but between 1981 and 1986, the marital
fertility contributed 1.3 points to the CBR change. However, the marital status has uniformly
contributed to the decline at the rate of 1.5 points per decade.
It is hypothesized that the observed stalled decline since 1977 and the very slow
rate of change during the first half of the 1980s cannot be entirely explained by the setback
suffered by the family planning program. Under plausible assumptions as to the marital fertility
behavior in each age group, the process of modernization raised the CBR by 2.7 points, or 2.1
million additional births, in 1986; similarly, the ’’cost” of the family planning program setback
is estimated to be 2.1 points higher CBR, or 1.6 million additional births in the country in
1986.
The short-term demographic prospects appear to be that the Seventh Five Year
Plan 1985-90 is likely to reach its revised target of CBR of 29-30. However, the medium
term target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the turn of the century seems
unrealistic and most unlikely to be reached. India will probably cross the mark of one billion
population by the year 2,000 A.D.; and, from the longer-term perspective, a population of
1.366 million for 2030 A.D., and a stationary population of 1.7 billion is projected for the
middle of the twenty-second century by the United Nations Population Division and the World
Bank, respectively.
Over the last thirty-five years, with a cumulative investment of Rupees 57 billion
(5.7 billion U.S. dollars at the current rate of exchange) by the end of the Seventh Five Year
Plan 1985-90, the family planning program is credited to have reduced, at best, the national
CBR by 4 points. In the contemporary demographic transition stage in India, the role of the
socioeconomic determinants remains dominant.
(ii)
AN ANALYSIS OF HUMAN FERTILITY DECLINE IN INDIA, 1961-1986
The paper attempts to decompose the estimated decline in the crude birth rate (CBR) in India
during the last twenty-five years, 1961-86. The main objective is to measure the extent of the
fertility decline due to the changes in the marital fertility, and thus to evaluate the
effectiveness of the family planning efforts in the country. Also, it
examines the stalled
decline in fertility level since the mid-1970s. The Standardization Approach, or Composition
Model, is used to isolate the contribution of the four selected variables — the marital fertility;
the marital status; the age distribution of women 15-49 years; and the proportion of women
15-49 years women in the total population-by the selected sub-periods.
In section I the socioeconomic background and the salient demographic patterns
are briefly surveyed. In section II the analytical framework for fertility behavior changes is
outlined. In section III the decomposition model is spelled out. In section IV the estimates of,
and trends in, the four selected variables are traced. In section V the results of the
decomposition process are presented. In section VI the stalled decline in the CBR since the
mid-1970s is examined, and it is hypothesized that the early phase of the modernization
process in India is enhancing the fertility level. In section VII the future prospects in fertility
decline and population growth, short-, medium- and long-term, are reviewed. In the last
section, VIII, the impact of the family .planning program is measured in terms of marital
fertility reduction over the last twenty-five years.
I. SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS
A brief introduction of the contemporary socioeconomic conditions and the demographic
features will place the fertility analysis in its proper perspective. With an estimated per capita
gross national product of Rupees 3,366 (new series), or U.S.$290.00 in 1986, India is included
1
2
in the category of 39 low-income countries, ranked 20th from bottom. In addition, its economy
in terms of per capita grew only 1.8 percent annually over the last twenty-one years (World
Bank, 1988). In other words, this low-income, slow-growing economy remains predominantly
agrarian, with seven out of every ten workers classified as "cultivators and agricultural
labourers" in 1981. However, in terms of social and political developments, some significant
strides have been made: for example, the number of students enrolled in the primary schools
(1-5 grades) and middle schools (6-8 grades) jumped from 22 million in 1950 to over 145
million in 1985. Similarly, during the last thirty years the expectation of life at birth has
increased by 16.7 years for males and 17.5 years for females. While attempting to deepen the
roots of democratic institutions in the country, general and free elections have been regularly
held for the federal, state, and municipal legislatures since early the 1950s.
Within the international context, the prevailing fertility level in India during the 1940s
and 1950s could be characterised as relatively "low" for the given level of socioeconomic
development and for a society
with a negligible rate of contraceptive use then. The average
number of live children bom per woman of unbroken marriage ranged from 5.7 to 7.8
according to the various national and regional surveys conducted in the rural and urban areas
between 1947 and 1960 (Agarwala, 1966:95). A common standard frequently cited for the
highest known birth rate in the literature is that of the Rutterites in the 1920s—a religious
group that lives in prosperous family communities in the north-western United States and
Canada. They enjoy excellent health and place a high premium on having large number of
children, with the result that the average number of children per woman exceeds 9 and birth
rates of fifty per 1,000 population and more are often recorded. Also, in rural Quebec, a
province of Canada, in the 1941 census an average of 9.9 children per woman was recorded;
similarly, during 1861-71, English women who were married between the ages of 15 and 19
years each gave birth to 8.4 children, on the average. Viewed in this context, the Indian total
3
fertility of 6-8 children for the earlier non-contraceptive phase is termed "moderate” (Rele,
1982:97), "relatively low" (Agarwala, 1977:43), and "a little below average for birth and
growth rates and about average in mortality" Cassen, 1978:48). Therefore, the prevailing
fertility levels in India during the 1940s and 1950s were apparently restrained by the social.
cultural and religious practices (Chandrasekaran, 1952; Rele, 1975).
The dominant influence on the fertility pattern in India is that of the early and
universal marriage, particularly among females. The marital unions are stable; divorces and
separations are almost negligible. In the 1981 census only 2.92 percent and 0.74 percent
females in the age groups 15-44 years were recorded as widowed and ’divorced and
separated’, respectively (Registrar General, 1983; Table 6, p. 10). The age specific fertility
curve is plateau-shaped, as the age group 20-29 years accounts for nearly half of the total
annual births. The relative marital fertility index for 1961 (age group 20-24 years= 100 with
the highest ASMFR of 334 per 1,000) shows a sharp decline with age. For example, for age
groups 25-29, 30-34, and 35-39, the index declines to 80, 70, and 51 respectively; and for the
youngest age group, 10-14 years, the index is negligible at 2. However, the index seems to
differ in the sharpness of decline in all age-groups when compared with the standard schedule
of natural fertility proposed by Coale and Trussel (1974:195-258). Perhaps it is thus because
the standard index does not include the age group 15-19 years, which is fairly significant in
the Indian pattern of marital fertility.
By definition the national averages of fertility measures hide many more
interesting aspects than they appear to reveal.
In a vast country of India’s geographic
demographic size and cultural, linguistic [Indian Constitution recognizes 15 Indian languages
as official for use in state administration] and religious diversity many significant differences
in fertility levels are noted. For example, there is sufficient evidence that the urban measures
are lower than the corresponding rural by about eight percent (1961 NSS data). Nevertheless,
4
a debate continues that the differentials could be mainly due to favourable age-sex-marital
status distributions in the urban areas and not due so much to lower marital fertility rates
(Rele, 1974). A comparison of the recent data shows that in 1971 the urban crude birth rates
were lower by 22.62 percent. And there seems to be a very slow convergence process, if any,
as a difference of 20.76 percent is found for 1986.
The differentials in the fertility levels by religion and educational attainment are
equally striking.
The general marital fertility rates, standardized and weighted by the
urban/rural population distribution, indicate that the fertility level for the Muslims (11.4 percent
in the national population) is 14.34 percent higher and that of the Christians (2.4 percent) is
8.40 percent lower than that of the Hindus (82.6 percent). The general marital fertility rates
are also standardized and classified by the three educational attainment levels of the sampled
mothers. An index ("illiterate” group =100) reveals an increase of 2.5 percent for the "literate
but below matriculation" group, but a decline of 21 percent for the "matriculation and above"
group in the rural sample. However, for the urban sample, the inverse association between
higher schooling levels and fertility measures is sharper: the index declines by 28 percent
between the lowest and the highest education levels (Registrar General, 1976). But only one
female in every four in the age group of 15 years and above was classified as literate in the
1981 census.
A regional disparity map of India [24 states and 7 union territories] in fertility
levels, measured by the CBRs (three year moving average, 1985-87), is traced (Map 1 and
Appendix Table A-12). Although the lowest CBR of 19.2 is reported for Goa state , having
only one million population, among the major states the lowest rates are estimated for Kerala
(22.4) and Tamil Nadu (24.0). On the other end of the range, the highest rates are estimated
for Uttar Pradesh (37.7) and Madhya Pradesh (37.6). Only 11 percent of the national
population lives in states and union territories where the estimated CBRs are below 25.0; 41
Map I
5
INDIA
CRUDE BIRTH RATE BY STATES, 1985-87
•
32.5
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s-S WEST
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^28.0
BIHAR
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32 0
/BHUTAN
NEPAL
37.7
I.
GUJARAT
34.2
32.8
35.1
RAJASTHAN
36.9
I.
ASSAM
SIKKIM
{
' ANDHRA PRADESH
30.5
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19.2
fKARNATAK^H
29.2
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•
A.
TAMIL NADU
KERALA
22.4
240 r
Source: Sample Registration Bulletin, XVII, No.2 (December, 1988).
6
percent live in areas where the CBRs are above 35.0. In terms of linguistic boundaries, the
6 Hindi speaking states in central and north India, with nearly 88 percent of the Hindi
speaking population of India, indicate the highest levels of fertility. In contrast, the southern
states show relatively lower fertility levels.
H. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
For fertility behaviour analysis, Davis and Blake (1956) formulated a broad and comprehensive
framework. In their now classic study, the authors linked biological and behavioral dimensions
of fertility through a set of eleven (six intercourse, five contraception, and two gestation
variables) "proximate determinants" or "intermediate fertility variables."
They argued that
social, cultural, religious, economic, and environmental factors, termed
indirect variables,
influence fertility exclusively through these direct determinants. A proximate determinant-
such as "age of entry into sexual union" or contraceptive use-directly influence fertility. If
a proximate determinant changes, then fertility level necessarily changes, provided other
proximate determinants remain unchanged. This may not
necessarily be the case for a
socioeconomic determinant, such as income, educational level, or place of residence
(urban/rural). Bongaarts (1978 and 1982) formulated a quantifiable reproductive model by
narrowing down the above set , first to eight and then to seven intermediate variables. Using
a sample of 41 populations of developing and developed countries, Bongaarts estimated that
the four variables-proportions married, level of contraceptive use, induced abortion, and
postpartum infecundability—"explained" about 96 percent of the variance in the total fertility
rates (TFRs). Each variable may have a positive or negative influence on the fertility level.
The sensitivity of the fertility level to variation in the different intermediate variables, however,
is determined by the corresponding stage in the demographic transition process.
India, with an estimated TFR of 4.2 in 1986, is entering stage III of the
Synthetic Transition Model (Bongaarts and Potter, 1983), which
characterizes fertility
I
7
transition into four stages measured in terms of TFRs: I. TFR is above 6.0; II. TFR is
between 4.5 and 6.0; DI. TFR is between 3.0 and 4.5; and IV. TFR is below 3.5. In stage
I the postpartum infecundability plays a significant role. The rate of contraception use is
minor, generally well below 10 percent, and the breastfeeding duration averages about 13
months. In contrast, in stage IV the roles of these two important variables are reversed
significantly.
The average breastfeeding period drops to less than three months, and the
average rate of contraceptive use rises up to 70 percent. Therefore, the fertility inhibiting-
effect of the postpartum infecundability in India is as important as that of the contraceptive
use rate in the demographic transition process. Nag (1980, 1983) has further broadened the
scope of the analytical framework by emphasizing the fact that the variables through which
modernization influences fertility levels in a positive manner have not received adequate
attention in the fertility analysis in the developing countries.
HL THE DECOMPOSITION MODEL
The Standardization Approach (Shryock, Siegel and Associates, 1971; Jaffe, 1951; United
Nations 1979, 1986) is employed to isolate the influence on CBR of the four components.
The model reduces the observed change in CBR to a residue; its usefulness lies primarily in
its effectiveness in determining whether fertility has changed at all. The composite nature of
the CBR makes it necessary to sort out,or to standardize for, he amount of change in it that
is due to the influence of any one of its four components. This model has some advantages
over other evaluation methods, ut is not without its own limitations. Its advantages include
its simplicity of use and calculation (a desk calculator will do); the easier availability of the
data required; and the fact that the results are not impaired by the method -such as by
specification of relationships (e.g. linearity), or by the nature of the variables (e.g. random).
or by the form of their distribution (e.g. normality). However, the model is limited by the
implied assumption that the components for which Standardization is performed are
8
independent of one another. The procedure more often yields an approximation of the effect
that the components have upon changing CBR.
Therefore, the summation of the relative
contribution of each component frequently does not account for the total change observed
because the decomposition, as commonly performed, does not consider the joint effects of the
components. Although the components operate simultaneously, the joint effects are reported
to be negligible in general.
However, there are some cases where joint effects are of
sufficient magnitude to have an impact on the results. The role of each component has been
assessed with the help of formulae suggested in the model.
For earlier studies covering
different time periods to measure the effects of selected factors on CBR changes in India, see
Rao (1978), Zachariah and Patel (1984) and Srikantan and Balasubramanian (1987).
IV. ESTIMATES OF THE FOUR COMPONENTS
In the absence of adequate and reliable data from the vital registration system in the country
(Jain, 1975: 37-39; Panel on India, 1984:28-29), the various estimates of fertility level have
been derived from age-sex distributions from the national censuses. For the post-independence
period, valuable supplementary demographic information has been provided by the various
national sample surveys and other ad hoc surveys at the sub-national level. Since the mid1960s, the all-India sample registration system provides estimates of the vital events for states
and union territories (Swamy, 1982:379-396).
Davis estimated a CBR of 48.0 for 1901-11 and
of 45.0 for 1931-41, but
cautioned by saying that "Our estimated birth rates are probably lower than is actually the
case, mainly because in preparing them we made no attempt to correct the census for
underestimation of children, preferring to be conservative rather than radical in our estimates"
(1951:69).
For the decade of 1951-61, estimates of CBR derived from the census data and
using the quasi-stable model range from 41.7 (Registrar General, 1964) to
46.0 (Saxena,
9
1965). And those prepared by other individual researchers and international agencies hover
around a value of 45; for example, Visaria, 1969: 44.9; Coale ,1972): 45.1; Rele and Sinha,
1970: 45.0; the United Nations, 1967: 45.1. The general consensus seems to be that during
the 1950s the CBR in India was of the order of 45-46, and that the official estimates of the
Registrar General are seriously
deficient.
For the decade of 1961-71, various estimates of CBR based on the census
results range from 40.0 to 44.5; for example, Rele and Sinha, 1973: 41.0; Registrar General,
1974: 41.1; Adlakha and Kirk, 1974: 40.5 to 42.0; Raghavachari, 1974: 41.1; Panel on India,
1984: 41.7; and Rele, 1987: 44.5 for 1961-66, and 41.7 for 1966-71. Therefore, it seems
plausible that the CBR for the decade was of the order of 42-43.
For the 1970s three sets of different estimates are presented in Table 1. based
on (a) the sample registration system introduced in the mid-1960s; (b) the estimates as
appraised by the Panel on India; and (c) by Rele (1987). Comprehensive surveys and critical
appraisals of these estimates have been attempted by many researchers in the past; for
example: Rele and Sinha (1970 and 1973); Adlakha and Kirk (1974); Jain (1975); Visaria and
Jain (1976); Jain and Adlakha (1982); Premi (1982); Rele (1982); Panel on India [Bhat,
Preston, and Dyson] (1984); and Rele (1987).
For the decomposition model the estimated CBRs and general fertility rates
(GFRs) generated by the Consistency Test are used (Table 1). For example, the estimated CBR
of 43.04 and GFR of 186.49 for 1961 is based on the weighted average of the rural all-India
sample (14th round of the national sample survey; Appendix Table A-l) and the urban sample
(16th round of the national sample survey; Appendix Table A-2) with appropriate adjustment
for under-reporting with reference to other estimates based on the census data (Appendix Table
A-3). Similarly, the sample registration system data for the selected years of 1971, 1976, and
10
TABLE 1 The consistency test estimates of the crude birth rate (CBR) and
the general fertility rate (GFR) and comparison with three other
estimates: (a) the sample registration system (SRS); (b) Panel on India;
and (c) Rele, India, 1951-1986, selected years/period
Consistency
test
Panel
SRS
Rele
year
CBR
GFR
year
CBR
period
CBR
period
CBR
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
1951-56
1956-61
43.4
44.1
1961-66
1966-71
1971-76
1976-81
44.5
41.7
39.9
34.5
1951-56
1966-61
1961
43.04
186.49
n. a.
n. a.
1961-71
41.0
1971
1976
40.73
35.73
180.30
157.99
1971
1976
36.90
34.40
1971-76
1976-81
37.9
34.5
1981
34.57
150.09
1981
33.90
1971-81
35.9
1986
32.49
137.07
1986
32.60
Notes:
The consistency test permits a selection of a CBR that is an exact
mathematical relationship of its four components ‘
.marital fertility rate;
marital status; age distribution of females 15-49 years; and proportion
of 15-49 years old females in the total population, The values are
obtained by using the following relationships:
n= 7
GFR= >. Ai .
Fi
i=7
CBR= (GFR).(proportion of females 15-49 years in the total population).
Sources:
Col. (2) and (3), based on the Consistency Test;
Col. (4) and (5):Registrar General,
no. 2 (December, 1988), p.3;
Sample Registration Bulletin XXII,
Cols. (6) and (7):Panel on India, Committee on Population and Demography,
United States National Research Council, Vital Rates in India, 1961-1981,
Report No.24 by P.N. Mari Bhat, Samuel Preston, and Tim Dyson (Washington,
D.C.:National Academy Press, 1984), p.5; and
Col.(8) and (9):J. R. Rele,"Fertility Levels and Trends in India, ^SI
SI,” Population and Development Review 13, no. 3 (September, 1987):513530.
11
1981 have been adjusted for the estimated rate of under-estimation as calculated by the
Registrar General.
(1) Marital Fertility: The analysis of age specific marital fertility rates (ASMFRs) is based
on the National Sample Surveys, the special surveys of 1972 and 1979, and on the SRS data
(Table 2, Chart 1). In general terms, the ASMFRs for the most reproductive age groups, 2029 years, have remained more or less the same over the last twenty-five years. But the older
age groups, 30-49 years, have experienced significant reductions. However, the changes
indicated for the youngest age group of 15-19 years reflect the complexities of measurement,
as the very young mothers in their early teens have a strong tendency to inflate their reported
ages. In addition, with a rising mean age at marriage, the number of mothers 15-17 years old
mothers declines while that of the 17-19 years increases. As noted earlier, the number of
married females in the age group below 15 in India is not insignificant, though it is rapidly
declining over time (Table 3). According to the NSS findings (14th and 16th rounds), the
ASMFR for mothers below the age of 15 years for the early 1960s is about 6 (Appendix
Table A-3), or the age specific marital fertility index (age group 20-24=100) is at 2. The
over-all pattern of marital fertility appears well supported by the focus and heavy emphasis
of the family planning efforts in the past on the terminal and semi-terminal contraceptive
methods.
(2) Marital Status: Table 3 and Chart 2 present the proportion of currently married females
by age groups, between 10 and 49 years of age, between 1951 and 1981, and the projections
for 1991. Over the last twenty-five years, the age group, 15-19 years, experienced a sharp
decline of 44 percent; and the next age group, 20-24 years, registered a modest decline of 12
percent during the same period. In contrast, the oldest age groups, 40-44 and 45-49 years,
registered increases in the proportion married of 14 and 21 percent, respectively.
These
changes in marital status over time are directly influenced by the rising mean age at marriage,
12
TABLE 2
years
Age specific marital fertility rates, India, 1961-86, selected
age groups
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
15-49 years
231.57
213.31
176.44
214.19
254.90
20-24
333.63
312.84
300.32
301.17
316.00
25-29
265.79
299.11
263.19
253.43
234.60
30-34
238.06
239.32
197.29
182.19
148.00
35-39
168.82
160.86
131.07
113.31
85.20
40-44
72.93
86.07
64.50
51.61
43.00
45-49
29.26
29.04
20.37
24.35
18.10
Sources:
Col.(2):(i) National Samp1e Survey, Fertility and Mortality Rates in
India:
Fourteenth Round:July 1958-June
1959
(Delhi:
Manager of
Publications, 1963); and (ii) National Sample Survey, Tables With Notes
on Fertility and Mortality Rates in Urban Areas of India: Sixteenth Round
July 1960-August 1961 (Delhi: Manager of Publications, 1971);for details
see Appendix Tables A-l, A-2, and A-3;
Col. (3):Registrar General, Statistics Division ,Fertility Differentials
in India 1972 (New Delhi:1976),Table 4, p.6; for details see Appendix
Table A-4;
Col. (4): Sample Registration Bulletin XVI, no.2 (December, 1982), Table
4, p.42; for details see Appendix Table A-5;
Col. (5): Sample Registration Bulletin XIX, no.l (June, 1985), Table 4,
P- 15; for details see Appendix Table A-6; and
Col. (6) : Sample Registration Bulletin
Table 4, p. 6.
XXII, no.
2 (December,
1988),
13
Chart 1
Age specific marital fertility rates, India, 1961-1986
325
325
300
300
20-24
250
250
30-34
15-19
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
45-49
0
1961
Source: Table 2
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
14
TABLE 3 Proportion of married women, 10-49 years, by age groups,
India, 1951-91
age
groups
(years)
1951
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
10-14
.1730
.1920
.1155
.0873
.0659
.0573
.0367
15-19
.7500
.6957
.5541
.4916
.4347
.3927
.3508
20-24
.9190
.9176
.8883
.8682
.8444
.8238
.8032
25-29
.9070
.9417
.9474
.9495
.9482
.9433
.9367
30-34
.8730
.9143
.9405
.9466
.9481
.9498
.9516
35-39
.8292
.8702
.9135
.9257
.9317
.9362
.9408
40-44
.7390
.7766
.8419
.8636
.8781
.8875
.8969
45-49
.6430
.6966
.7810
.8050
.8293
.8424
.8555
Sources:
Census data for 1951, 1961, 1971, and 1981;
1976 and 1986 interpolation;
1991 based on a second degree curve fitted to the values of proportion
married in each group in 1961, 1971 and 1981. For the age group 10-14 it
is assumed that the proportion married will linearly decline to less than
one percent by the year 2000 A.D.
K. S. Natarajan (1986), "Projections of proportions married,"
Working Paper, Registrar General, New Delhi: mimeographed, 1986;
Staff
assumpt ions
for Population
(1987),
"Alternate
K.
S.
Natarajan
Projections," Staff Working Paper, Registrar General, New Delhi:
mimeographed, 1987).
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16
the general increase in the life expectancy at birth, and the widow and widower remarriages.
About 4.5 million marriages take place every year in India, and over three
million brides fall into the age group of 15-19 years. Historically, many attempts have been
made through legislation and social voluntary agencies to influence the teenage marriages.
The Sarda Act of 1930, amended in 1949 and again in 1956, raised the minimum age at
marriage for females from 14 to 15 and then to 16 years.
The mean age at mamage
[singulate mean age calculated by Hajnal’s method (1953)] increased gradually from 12.8 to
15.5 years for females and from 19.6 to 21.3 for males between 1891 and 1961 (Agarwala,
1977). The recent Child Marriage Restraint Act of 1978 further raised the minimum age at
marriage to 18 years for females and to 21 years for males.
As in the past, the
implementation of this social legislation remains, by and large, ineffective. Nearly 8.0 percent
of the rural females in the age group of 10-14 years were reported married. Goyal (1975) has
estimated that the mean age at marriage increased from 16.1 to 17.2 years for females, and
from 21.4 to 22.2 years for males between 1961 and 1971. Similarly, between 1971 and 1981
the mean age at marriage for females further increased from 17.8 to 18.7 years, and for males
from 22.6 to 23.4 years, based on the five percent sample data (Registrar General, 1983).
The fertility level is directly influenced by the length of the period during which
couples live in fertile union which, in turn, is affected by the high incidence of widowhood
in India due to religious and social disapproval of widow remarriages.
The incidence of
divorces and separations is on the very low side; less than 0.75 percent of all females,- 15-
49 years, were recorded in the 1981 census as ’’divorced or separated”. The mean age at
widowhood increased from 28.8 years during the 1930s to 34.8 years in the 1960s (Agarwala,
1977). Among the Muslims (11.2 percent of the population) and the Christians (2.6 percent)
there is no religious ban on widow remarriages, but the Hindus (82.3 percent), especially
higher caste, have always imposed social and religious restrictions.
With the spread of
17
modernization the trend of remarriages is on the increase in the urban as well as in the rural
areas. Sample surveys conducted in the mid-1960s in some villages in Northern and Western
India found that more than two-thirds of all widows below the age of 30 years remarried
(Agarwala, 1974). The estimates derived from the 1971 census show that at the national level
one-third of the ever-widowed women and slightly fewer than two-thirds of the ever-widowed
men were currently remarried in that year (Bhat and Kanbargi, 1984). For India and Pakistan,
Davis (1951) estimated the fertility rates would have increased by 13.4 percent for the Hindus
and 7.0 for the Muslims if the taboos on widow remarriage had been completely eliminated.
As it was, the national fertility rate was suppressed by 13.0 percent in 1931 and by 11.5
percent in 1941. Similarly, Kumar (1971) quantified the possible impact of the pattern of
widow remarriages on the CBR in India for 1960-63 by applying the widow remarriage pattern
of Finland because the mortality level prevailing in India then was found to be similar to
Finland’s during 1871-80. The author observed that , "Thus the likely effect of widow
remarriages would be an increase in India’s birth rate of 1.8, or a 4 % addition to the
observed level of 42.4. This is a substantial effect, involving an additional 713,196 births"
(p.275).
(3) Age Distribution: Table 4 presents age distribution of females by age groups between
1961 and 1991. Because of very rapid mortality declines during the last four decades [crude
death rate (CDR) fell from 27.4 during the 1940s to a low of 11.1 in 1986] and relatively
slow changes in the fertility levels (CBR declined from 45-46 in the 1940s and 1950s to 32.6
in 1986), the age distribution is changing continuously. For example, between 1961 and 1981,
the relative share of females below the age of 15 years declined by 4.54 percent and that of
50 years and above increased by 16.63 percent.
The combined share of the two most
reproductive age groups, 20-24 and 25-29 years, declined by 0.78 percent during the 1960s
and again declined by 1.34 percent during the 1970s,but it is projected to increase by 1.47
18
TABLE 4 Percentage distribution of females by age groups, India,1961-91,
selected years
age groups
1961
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
15-19 years
20.59
21.04
21.03
21.01
21.67
21.31
20-24
18.28
18.24
18.10
18.05
18.13
18.78
25-29
16.39
16.16
16.04
15.89
15.53
15.68
30-34
14.50
14.17
13.97
13.77
13.67
13.43
35-39
11.97
12.12
12.07
12.01
11.84
11.81
40-44
9.87
10.04
10.23
10.43
10.29
10.19
45-49
8.40
8.23
8.56
8.84
8.87
8.80
15-49
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
0-14
41.70
42.40
41.10
39.81
38.13
35.71
15-49
47.60
46.89
47.30
47.71
48.97
50.70
50 & over
10.70
10.71
11.60
12.48
12.90
13.59
All ages
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Sources:
1961, 1971, and 1981: census data;
1976: straight line interpolation in each age group between 1971 and 1981
values;
1986 and 1991: medium series projections; Registrar General, Demography
Division, Report of the Expert Committee on Population Projections (New
Delhi: mimeographed, 1985; K. S. Natarajan), Table 1.3, p.50.
For further details see Appendix Table A-12.
19
percent during the 1980s.
(4) Age Composition of 15-49 year females in the total population
Table 5 presents the share of the females in the productive ages in the total population
between 1951 and 1991. During the 1960s the proportionate share declined by 2.10 percent,
a trend favorable to the fertility decline. But during the 1970s, it increased by 1.96, which
contributed positively to the fertility level, assuming that the influence of other determinants
remained unchanged. For the 1980s, this unfavourable trend is projected to continue and
accelerate as the proportionate share is expected to increase by 6.71 percent.
The sex-ratio (number of females per 1,000 males) has been consistently
worsening since the turn of the century, sharply falling from 972 in 1901 to 930 in 1971.
However, the trend reversed itself, though marginally, during the last decade.
A partial
explanation of this unhealthy situation can be traced to the high maternal mortality in the past
(Pandit, 1987), to the general neglect of female babies (Gopalan, 1985) and to the pronounced
preferences for sons (Reppetto, 1972; Sarma and Jain, 1974; Jejeebhoy, 1984; Arnold, 1987;
Das, 1987). On the other hand, in recent decades the process of modernization has somewhat
softened the traditional preference for male children.In addition, there is a healthy improvement
in the status of women in social, political and economic terms, especially with the enactment
of the Hindu Code Bill and the Special Marriage Act of 1956, which ensures equal share in
the parental estate to the daughters, guaranteeing their legal equality with the sons.
V. THE DECOMPOSITION MODEL RESULTS
Table 6 presents the results of the decomposition model by selected periods between 1961 and
1986, attributing the observed CBR changes to the four components. The joint-effect terms,
residual and not attributed to any of the four factors, have not been allocated to individual
components, because of the lack of a reliable statistical basis for doing so. Moreover, the
relative and absolute size of these terms is not significant; for example, for 1961-71 it is 0.14
20
TABLE 5
Proportion of females,
India,1951-1991, selected years
15-49 years,
in the total population,
total
females
proportion
population females 15-49 years
col.(4) —(2)
(’000)
(’000)
(’000)
total
year
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
1951
356,900
173,300
86,700
24.2925
1961
439,235
212,942
101,361
23.0767
1966
490,203
236,936
112,783
23.0074
1971
547,137
263,634
123,608
22.5918
1976
612,270
295,302
138,456
22.6135
1981
685,159
330,775
157,819
23.0339
1986
761,070
368,283
180,370
23.6995
1991
837,250
405,948
205,802
24.5807
Sources:
1951, 1961, 1971, and 1981 census data;
1966 and 1976: interpolated with reference to the observed annual
geometric growth rate for total population and total females as follows:
Period
total population
total females
1961-71
2.2200
2.1584
1971-81
2.2750
2.2974
1986 and 1991: medium series projections;Registrar General, Report of the
Expert Committee on Population Projections (New Delhi: mimeographed,
1985), Table 1.3, p.50.
For details see Appendix Tables A-7, A-8, A-9, A-10, and A-ll.
21
TABLE 6
Observed changes in the crude birth rate (CBR) attributed to the
corresponding changes in:(a) the marital fertility;(b) the marital status;(c) the
age structure of women 15-49 years;(d) the proportion of women, 15-49 years, in
the total population, India, 1961-86, selected periods
due to
proportion
due to due to
of women
CBR
due to
marital age
in total
change
marital
explained fertility status structure population
joint
effect
terms
period
CBR
change
observed
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
1961-86
observed
percent
-10.55
(100.00)
-9.68
(91.80)
-6.44
(61.05)
-3.82
(36.19)
-0.59
(5.56)
+ 1.16
(+11.00)
-0.86
(8.20)
1961-81
observed
percent
- 9.31
(100.00)
-9.44
(101.40)
-5.73
(61.58)
-3.06
(32.86)
-0.57
(6.11)
- 0.08
(-0.86)
+0.13
(1.40)
1961-71
observed
percent
-2.44
- 2.30
(100.00) (106.15)
-0.12
(5.12)
-0.09
(4.08)
- 0.90
(-39.27)
+0.14
(6.15)
1971-81
observed
percent
- 7.01
-6.88
(100.00) (98.20)
-5.62
(80.28)
-1.61
(22.98)
-0.44
(6.32)
+ 0.80
(+11.38)
-0.13
(1.80)
1971-76
observed
percent
- 6.06
-5.07
(100.00) (100.64)
-5.22
(86.10)
-0.75
(12.38)
-0.22
(3.66)
+ 0.04
(+0.64)
+0.09
(1.50)
1976-81
observed
percent
-0.94
(100.00)
-0.81
(86.55)
-0.52
(55.27)
-0.76
(80.41)
-0.18
+ 0.64
(19.54) (+68.67)
+0.13
(13.45)
1981-86
observed
percent
-1.24
(100.00)
-1.12
(90.30)
-1.31
(105.26)
-0.68
(54.89)
-0.11
(8.64)
+ 0.97
(+78.47)
-0.12
(9.70)
-1.33
(57.68)
Notes:
a. Percentages are based on the net observed change in the CBR;
b. For the method of decomposition, see text and Appendix A.
22
point, or 6.0 percent, and for 1971-81 it is 0.13 point, or 2.0 percent. Keeping in mind the
limitations of the mathematical relationship implied in the model, and the general quality of
the available demographic data, the following points are observed:
1. During the last twenty-five years, 1961-86, the CBR has declined by 10.55
points or by 24.51 percent. Nearly three-fifths of the observed change in the values of CBR
is attributed to the corresponding changes in the patterns of the marital fertility. Over one-
third (36 percent) of the observed decline is due to changes in marital status. The changing
age distribution consistently contributed to the fertility decline but its size is relatively small,
only 6 percent of the observed change. The changing proportion of females 15-49 years in the
total national population has contributed positively to the fertility level, raising it by 11
percent.
2. In terms of period analysis, the bulk of the CBR decline —7.01 points
or two-thirds- took place during the 1970s, and a very significant part of it during the firsthalf
of the decade. During 1976-81 the CBR decline almost stalled; the marital fertility declined
very marginally (0.5 point). The stalled decline continued during the next five years, 198186, when the marital fertility contributed 1.12 points to the over-all decline. During the 1960s
most of the observed decline of 2.30 points is attributed to the marital status and to the
proportion of reproductive women in the total national population. In other words, there is no
evidence of any marital fertility decline in the 1960s.
3. The changing marital status has consistently contributed to the CBR decline
in every selected period. During the decade of 1961-71, its share is estimated to be a solid
1.33 points. The rate of its contribution is estimated to have accelerated by 21 percent during
1971-81. During the last five years, 1981-86, it contributed 0.86 point to the over-all decline.
4. Between 1961 and 1971, the proportion of reproductive age women in the
total national population contributed (-0.90 point) to the CBR decline, but during the next
23
decade of 1971-1981, it raised the CBR by 0.80 points. And during the firsthalf of the 1980s,
the positive contribution of this factor in raising the CBR is very significant at 0.97 point.
5. The contribution of the age distribution component to the CBR decline in
every sub-period is estimated to be consistent, but in terms of absolute values it is not
significant.
6. The joint-effect terms were not significant, ranging from +0.14 during 196171 to -0.13 during 1971-81.
VI. THE STALLED DECLINE IN THE CBR
After very marginal declines in the CBR during the 1950s and 1960s, the rate of decline
accelerated in the late 1970s. The marital fertility alone is estimated to have declined by over
5 points during the firsthalf of the 1970s. But during the second half of the decade, this
decline almost stalled. How do we explain the observed plateau in the CBR decline between
1976 and 1984 at the national level (Chart 3 and Appendix Table A-14)?
One obvious but only partial explanation is the increasing proportion of
reproductive women, 15-49 years, in the total national population due to the rapid decline in
the mortality rate during the recent decades. During the 1960s this component contributed to
the fertility decline,but in the 1970s it actually the fertility level.
A major explanation of the observed stall is sought in the changes in the
political leadership during that period. The family planning program suffered a serious setback
after the defeat of the Congress Party of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in March 1977. During
the 19-month period of emergency rule, June 1975 to January 1977, an intense family planning
drive was carried out by official agencies. More than 8 million sterilizations were performed
in one year, a number more than three times that in the preceding year. In September 1976
alone, over 1.7 million sterilizations were recorded, equal to the annual average for the ten
preceding years. A critical review of the events concluded that "The application of top-level
CHART 3
Estimates of crude birth rates, India, 1971-87 (SRS data), and Adjusted by Brass's Method, (1971-1980)
40 -
- 40
39
39
38 -
- 38
Adjusted by Brass's Method
37
37
CBR
CBR
36 -
- 36
35
35
34 -
- 34
SRS data
33
33
32
32
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
YEARS (19_)
Source: Sample Registration Bulletin XXI, no. 2 (Dec., 1988), p. 3
Sample Registration Bulletin XVIII, no. 1 (June, 1983), pp. 12-13.
1984
1986
1988
1990
25
political will to family planning, India’s experience indicates, is no panacea for the ills from
which family planning programs suffer," (Gwatkin, 1979:31). The Index of Equivalent
Sterilization (1971=100) sharply fell to a low of 50 in 1977 after peaking at 349 in the
previous year. Similarly, the percentage of "couples currently and effectively protected"
remained unchanged at 22-23 between 1977 and 1980. However, in the recent period, 1981-
86, significant progress has been recorded in the family program as the index increased almost
three fold and the percentage of protected couples jumped by 58 percent (Appendix Table A14).
An interesting question is: Can the observed plateau during the second half of
the 1970s and the slow rate of decline during the first half of the 1980s be entirely explained
by the near collapse of the family planning program in 1977? The answer is a simple no. The
measured change in CBR reflects the net outcome of the forces reducing as well as raising
the fertility level as an integral part of the process of modernization . The prominent variables
responsible for enhancing the fertility level are: (1) decline in the duration and intensity of
breastfeeding; (2) softening of the cultural and religious taboos on sexual activity; and (3)
decline in the customary extended visits by married daughters to their parents’ homes at the
time of giving birth to their first, and possibly second child (Chandrasekaran, 1952; Rele,
1975; Nag, 1980, 1981, and 1983). Although there are no direct statistical measurements of
the
impact of these cultural and sociological factors over time at the national level, some
micro-level surveys support the view that the duration of breastfeeding has declined as an
adverse effect of the modernization.
For example, the percentage of exclusively breastfed
children at the end of four months of age had declined to 66 percent in Bombay, 35 percent
in Calcutta and 45 percent in Madras (Gopalan, 1985). A survey conducted in urban Delhi.
in 1985-86 (n= 578 for ever-married 15-49 year-old women) revealed that the younger age
group of 15-29 years, on the average, breastfed for fewer months, compared with the older
26
group of 30-49 years (Basu and Sundar, 1988). A comprehensive review of India’s family
planning efforts suggested that during the 1970s the reduced breastfeeding cut by one-half the
impact of the increased use of contraception (Bulatao, 1984).
An attempt is made to isolate the influence of modernization forces in raising
the fertility level and the ’’cost" of the setback suffered by the family planning program under
specific assumptions. The changes observed in the ASMFRs (Table 2 and Chart 1) during the
last ten years in the younger age groups of 15-29 years reflect the process of modernization,
while those in the older age groups of 30-49 years are the direct result of the family planning
program. In view of the indirect evidence available, these assumptions seem fairly plausible
and realistic. For example, the mean age of wives of the vasectomy acceptors in the mid-
1970s was 34.8 years; the proportion of couples protected by sterilization and intra-uterine
devices was only 1.5 percent and 5.7 percent in the age groups 15-19 and 20-24 years,
respectively (Natarajan, 1988).
By straight-line extrapolation of the declining trend in the ASMFRs between 1971 and 1976
in the 30-44 year age groups, while assuming no change in the ASMFRs for the younger
groups (15-29 years), the adverse effects of the setback to the family planning programme are
estimated. The "cost" of the setback to the family planning program is 2.1 points higher CBR
in 1986. In other words, there would have been 1.6 million fewer births in that year.
Similarly, by reversing the process, that is, by straight-line extrapolating the declining trends
between 1971 and 1976 in the ASMFRs of the younger age groups 20-29 years, while holding
the ASMFRs for all other groups constant, the possible impact of the modernization forces is
measured to be a higher CBR by 2.7 points, or 2.1 million additional births, in 1986.
It would be incorrect to suggest that the family planning programme has been
not been effective in controlling the population growth in India. The analysis suggests that
since the mid-1970s it has not been producing a significant net negative effect in terms of
27
CBR.
The impact of the modernization process in enhancing the fertility level in India, it
seems, is neither adequately understood nor fully appreciated. Any progress in the
understanding of this complex process will provide an improved basis for population policy
formulation.
VII. FUTURE PROSPECTS
The prospects of future decline in the fertility level and population growth are
divided into three time-periods: short-term (five years), medium-term (15-20 years) and the
longer perspective.
Over the next five years, 1986-91, the model results suggest that the
gradually rising age at marriage and the changing age distribution of women (15-49 years old)
will reduce the CBR by one point.
years
In contrast, the increasing proportion of women 15-49
in the total population will increase the CBR by one point, offsetting each other’s
impact. Therefore, any contribution to the decline must come from the marital fertility
behaviour. Considering the recent rising trend in the percentage of "couples currently and
effectively protected by various methods of family planning" and noting the growing number
of "couples effectively protected due to other (non-terminal) methods", which increased from
2.3 million in 1981 to 6.7 million in 1986, it is speculated that the CBR will reach a level
of 29-30 by 1990-91. Hopefully, the revised target of the Seventh Five Year Plan, 1985-90,
will be reached.
The medium-term national demographic goal is "to reach Net Reproduction Rate
of unity (NRR = 1) by 2000 A.D. with a birth rate of 21, death rate of 9, an infant mortality
rate of less than 60 for each thousand live births, and a couple protection rate of 60 percent"
(Department of Family Welfare, 1988; p.10). However, this goal of attaining NRR of unity
was realistically revised by the Planning Commission by noting that"...a review indicates...
that this goal would be reached only in the period 2006-2011" (1985;281). The recent
population projections for India made by the World Bank assume a still later period of 2010-
28
2015 for reaching the goal of NRR of unity (Vu, 1984). A detailed appraisal of the trends
in the pertinent bio-social determinants concludes that the replacement fertility level will.
in all probability, be reached by the year 2010 A.D. (Chaudhry, 1986a, 1986b, 1987,
1988,1989a and 1989b).
A national CBR of about 25
by the turn of the century is
projectedrthe Group A States (51 percent of the national population in 1981), mostly in urban
India and the south, are projected to attain the replacement level by the year 2000 with a CBR
of 21; Group B States (10 percent of the population) will
attain a CBR of 20 by the year
2010 A.D.; Group C States (40 percent of the population), entirely Hindi speaking central
states, will reach a CBR of 29 in the year 2000 A.D., and 24 in 2010 A.D. The consensus
of the various projections is that India will reach a population of one billion by the turn of
the century (Registrar General, 1984; United Nations, 1985; World Bank, 1988). The longerterm perspective is that the stationary population - where age and sex specific mortality rates
are to remain unchanged over a long period, while age specific fertility rates simultaneously
remain at replacement level- will be attained in the middle of the twenty-second century with
a population of 1,698 million (World Bank,1988). A medium-term
population projection
prepared by the Population Division places the national population at 1,366 million for the
year 2030 A.D. (United Nations, 1985).
VID. THE IMPACT OF THE FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM
According to the official estimates the cumulative total of births averted exceeds 85 million;
between 1956 and 1986 49 million sterilizations (24 million vasectomies and 25 million
tubectomies), were performed between 1956 and 1986. In terms of financial resources,
according to some rough estimates, over US$1 billion a year is spent on the family planning
programs by various national and international agencies. At the current rate of exchange, India
will have invested nearly 5.3 billion US dollars (57 billion rupees) on the family planning
programs by the end of the Seventh Five Year Plan in 1990. It is not easy to measure in
29
precise terms the contribution of these publicly funded family planning efforts in controlling
population growth, as in the absence of a population control policy the process of
modernization in itself generates demand for, and supplies of, services to limit the family size.
How much credit is really due to the family planning program in reducing fertility level in
India?
A review of the effects of family planning programs on fertility concluded that.
"...although family planning programs are in part a response to preexisting demand, recent
studies show that such programs do have an independent effect on fertility. Cross-country
analysis shows that, for the average country, previous fertility decline accounted for 33 percent
of the total fall in fertility between 1965 and 1975:socio- economic change accounted for 27
percent; the family planning index accounted for more than either:40 percent," (World Bank,
1984:118).
In the case of India, 61 percent of the total decline in the CBR is attributed to
the marital fertility component. Assuming that the family planning program independently
accounted for 40 percent of the total decline in India as well, and further assuming that all
family planning efforts in the country are directly funded by public funds, which is not the
case as many voluntary agencies are involved, a decline of about 4 CBR points, at best, can
be credited to the family planning program. Therefore, the direct role and importance of the
socioeconomic variables in the future plans aimed at marital fertility reduction must be fully
appreciated.
30
REFERENCES
Adlakha, Aijun and Dudley Kirk. 1974. "Vital rates in India, 1961-1971," Population Studies
28, no. 3: 381-400.
Aggarwala, S. N. 1966. Some Problems of India’s Population. Bombay: Vora and Company.
Agarwala, S.N. 1974. India's Population Problems, Revised First Edition. New Delhi: Tata
McGraw-Hill.
Agarwala, S.N. 1977. Population, Second Revised Edition. New Delhi: National Book Trust
Arnold, Fred. 1987. "The effect of sex preference on fertility and family planning: empirical
evidence," Asia-Pacific Population and Policy, no.2
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Appendix Tables A-l to A-14
Appendix A: The Standaridazation Approach
(a-i)
A-l
List of appendix tables
APPENDIX TABLE A-l Estimates of the sample total population, the total females, the
female marital status, and the age specific fertility rates by age groups, based on all-India rural
sample [the National Sample Survey 14th Round, July 1958 to June 1959]
APPENDIX TABLE A-2 Estimates of the sample total population, the total females, the
female marital status, and the age specific fertility rates by age groups based on all-India urban
sample [the National Sample Survey 16th Round, July 1960 to August 1961]
APPENDIX TABLE A-3 Age specific fertility rates and age specific marital fertility rates,
India, 1961
APPENDIX TABLE A-4 Age specific fertility and marital fertility rates, rural and urban,
India, 1971
APPENDIX TABLE A-5 Age specific fertility and marital fertility rates, India, 1976
APPENDIX TABLE A-6 Age specific fertility and marital fertility rates, India, 1981
APPENDIX TABLE A-7 Total population, males, females, married females, by age groups,
1961
APPENDIX TABLE A-8 Total population, males, females, married females, by age groups,
India, 1971
APPENDIX TABLE A-9 Total population, males, females, married females, by age groups,
India, 1976
APPENDIX TABLE A-10 Total population, males, females, married females, by age groups,
India, 1981
APPENDIX TABLE A-11 Total population, males, females, married females, by age groups,
India, 1986 (medium series projections)
APPENDIX TABLE A-12 Number of females by selected age groups, India, 1961-91
APPENDIX TABLE A-13 Total population (1981 census) and sample registration system
estimates of crude birth rates (three-year moving average, 1985-87), India by states and union
territories
APPENDIX TABLE A-14 Estimates of crude birth rates (i)based on the sample registration
system; (ii) SRS estimates adjusted by Brass’s Method; couples currently and effectively
protected by various methods of family planning, and family planning acceptors, India, 196187
A-2
APPENDIX TABLE A-l Estimates of the sample total population, the total
females, the female marital status, and the age specific fertility rates
by age groups, based on all-India RURAL sample [the National Sample Survey
14th round, July 1958 to June 1959]
singles
(number)
age
specific
fertility
rate per
1,000
(6)
(7)
marital status of females
age
groups
(years)
total
total
population females
(number)
(number)
currently
divorced
married
(number) (number)
(4)
(5)
(1)
(2)
(3)
0-4
5-9
10-14
184,670
171,307
135,312
91,945
83,657
62,461
0-14
491,289
238,063
15-19
20-24
100,522
100,039
48,607
51,686
15-24
200,561
100,293
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
98,715
83,306
69,101
63,322
49,732
40,970
35,569
31,142
25-44
314,444
155,413
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
50,441
47,431
29,133
31,420
39,125
24,629
23,267
13,973
16,223
20,189
45 +
197,550
98,281
42,270
55,616
395
All agesl,203,844
592,050
284,538
77,735
229,392
19,926
167
217,970
1.03
143.91
263.56
87,195
2,768
10,330
244.31
188.34
127.85
49.59
135,349
19,364
699
17.58
2.28
79.14
Notes: All-India uni-stage stratified sample size is 2,538 villages,
234,344 households, and 1,203,844 persons(p.5). The General, Marital, and
Nuptial fertility rates, 177.90, 211.4, and 192.3 respectively, are
calculated by dividing the total number of live births by the total number
of currently married and ever-married females in the age group of 15-44
years.
The live births occurring to the mothers below 15 and above 45
have
been included in the total live births (NSS, p.7).
years
Source’.National Sample Survey (1963). Fertility and Mortality Rates in
India: Fourteenth Round: July 1958- June 1959 (Delhi: Manager of
Publications, 1963), Table 1.16.R, p. 37 for col. (2) and (3), Table
S.S.C, p.65 for Col. (4) and (5), and Table S.S.C., p. 129 for col. (7).
A-3
APPENDIX TABLE A-2 Estimates of the sample total population, the total
females, the female marital status, and the age specific fertility rates
by age groups based on all-India URBAN sample [the National Sample Survey
16th round July 1960-August 1961]
marital status of females
age
groups
(years)
total
total
population females
(number)
(number)
(1)
(2)
(3)
0-4
5-9
10-14
242,072
230,215
193,328
118,452
112,467
90,083
0-14
665,615
321,002
15-19
20-24
146,725
146,231
67,076
69,330
15-24
229,956
136,406
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
140,961
117,413
99,793
83,490
68,864
53,941
44,458
36,530
25-44
441,657
203,793
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
67,517
59,942
35,899
37,710
45,450
30,546
27,359
16,400
18,498
23,240
All agesl,646,746
777,244
currently
married
(number)
divorced
(number)
(4)
(5)
age
specific
fertility
singles rate per
(number) 1,000
(6)
(7)
0.90
104.98
244.68
218.60
168.89
110.67
41.53
9.60
0.014
329,629
87,362
360,252
70.70
Notes:
All-India uni-stage stratified urban sample is based on 363,520 households
(average size 4.53 persons) in 2,272 urban blocks (the NSS Report, p.5).
Source:
National Sample Survey, Tables With Notes on Fertility and Mortality Rates
in Urban Areas of India: Sixteenth Round July 1960-August 1961
(Delhi: Manager of Publications, 1971), for col. (2) and (3) Table 1, p.22;
for cols. (4), (5), and (6) Table 3, p. 35; and for col. (7) Table 3.3,
p. 6 and Table 5, p. 43.
A-4
APPENDIX TABLE A-3 Age specific fertility rates and age specific marital
fertility rates, India, 1961
age specific fertility rates
age
specific
proportion marital
married
fertility
(1961)
rate
rural
urban
combined
adjusted
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
10-14
1.03
0.90
1.01
1.19
.1920
6.19
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
143.91
263.56
244.31
188.34
127.85
49.59
17.58
104.98
244.68
218.60
168.89
110.67
41.53
9.60
136.91
260.17
239.69
184.84
124.76
48.14
16.14
161.17
306.27
282.16
217.59
146.87
56.67
19.00
.6960
.9180
.9420
.9140
.8700
.7770
.6970
231.57
333.63
265.79
238.06
168.82
72.93
27.26
50-54
2.28
0.01
1.87
2.20
.6000
3.67
all ages
79.14
70.70
77.62
91.38
age groups
(years)
(6)
(7)
Sources;
Col. (2):National Sample Survey Fourteenth Round (1963); for details see
Appendix Table A-l;
Col. (3):National Sample Survey Sixteenth Round (1971); for details see
Appendix Table A-2;
Col. (4):Weighted average based on the rural and urban population
proportion in the 1961 census—82.03 percent rural; and 17.97 percent
urban;
Col. (5):Uniformly adjusted for under-estimation in each age group, The
adjustment factor of 117.72 is derived by dividing the census based CBR
of 44.3 for 1961 by the sample based CBR of 37.63. The estimated total
live births [female population of 212.942 is multiplied by the sample all
ages fertility rate of 77.6233=16.529] divided by the 1961 population of
439.235 million yields a CBR of 37.63.
Col. (6):1961 census data;
Col. (7):Col. (5) divided by Col. (6).
A-5
APPENDIX TABLE A-4 Age specific fertility and marital fertility rate,
rural and urban, India, 1971
age specific
fertility rate
age specific marital
fertility rate
age
groups
(years)
rural
urban
combined
rural
urban
combined
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
97.5
273.5
283.4
227.2
151.2
82.7
32.7
52.2
220.6
247.3
173.4
108.2
43.3
13.0
88.48
262.97
276.21
216.49
142.64
74.86
28.78
211.5
312.9
302.8
248.8
170.1
94.5
32.4
220.6
312.6
284.3
201.2
123.7
52.2
15.5
213.31
312.84
299.11
239.32
160.86
86.07
29.04
Notes:
The fertility history of all ever-married women (sample size = 230,012)
was collected as on 1st July, 1972, and the reference period regarding
current fertility was 1st July, 1971 to 30th June, 1972. This survey was
undertaken in a 25 percent sub-sample of the sample registration system.
In the rural areas [2,381 sample units, 128,154 households, and 170,337
ever-married women] a stratified two stage and in urban areas [1,234
sample units, 50,166 households, and 59,675 ever-married women] a three
stage stratified sample design was used (pp.3-4).
Sources:
Cols. (2), (3), (5) and (6):Registrar General, Fertility Differentials
in India 1972 (New Delhi: Office of the Registrar General, 1976), Table
4, p. 6;
Cols (3) and (7): Weighted average based on the rural (80.09%) and urban
(19.91%) population in the 1971 census count.
A-6
APPENDIX TABLE A-5
India, 1976
age
groups
(1)
15-19 years
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Age specific fertility and marital fertility rates,
age
specific
fertility
rates
Adjusted
age
specific
fertility
rates
proportions
married
(1976)
age
specific
marital
fertility
rates
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
83.0
249.5
238.8
179.7
116.1
53.3
15.7
86.74
260.74
249.56
186.75
121.33
55.70
16.40
.4916
.8682
.9482
.9466
.9257
.8636
.8050
176.44
300.32
263.19
197.29
131.07
64.50
20.37
Sources:
Col. (2):Sample Registration Bulletin XVI, No. 2 (Dec ember,
Table 4, p. 42;
1982),
Col. (3): Uniformly adjusted for under-estimation. The adjustment factor
of 104.51 is derived by dividing the census based estimate of CBR of 35.95
by the sample registration system estimate of 34.4. An evaluation of the
extent of under-reporting of the vital events noted that: "It is observed
that the extent of omission of events was more during the first half of
the decade 1971-80.
...Taking into account the omission of 6 percent in
case of both births and deaths during 1970-75, the adjusted birth and
death rates for the period are 38.0 and 16.5 respectively which are
centered around January 1973,” [Sample Registration Bulletin XVII, No. 1
(June, 1983), p. 13.
Col. (4): Straight-line interpolation between the values of 1971 and 1981
census;
Col. (5): Col. (3) divided by Col. (4).
K-l
APPENDIX TABLE A-6 Age specific fertility and marital fertility rates,
India, 1981
age
groups
age
specific
fertility
rates
Adjusted
age
specific
fertility
rates
proportions
married
(1981)
age
specific
marital
fertility
rates
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
15-19 years
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
90.4
246.9
232.1
167.7
102.5
44.0
19.6
93.11
254.31
239.06
172.73
105.57
45.32
20.19
.4347
.8444
.9433
.9481
.9317
.8781
.8293
214.19
301.17
253.43
182.19
113.31
51.61
24.35
Source:
Col. (2):Sample Registration Bulletin XIX, No.
Table 4, p. 15;
1 (June, 1985),
Col. (3) Uniformly adjusted with a factor of 103.0 for under-estimation.
An intensive enquiry conducted by the Registrar General to quantify the
extent of omissions of vital events for 1980-81 concluded that "at the
national level the level of under-estimation of birth rate in the SRS is
of the order of 3 percent.” [Sample Registration Bulletin XVII, No. 2
(December, 1983), p. 13].
Col. (4):1981 census data;
Col. (5): Col. (3) divided by Col. (4).
A-8
APPENDIX TABLE A-7 Total population, males, females, married females, by
age groups, 1961
[thousands]
age groups
(years)
total
population
males
females
married
females
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0-4
5-9
10-14
72,646
58,178
49,846
36,659
29,644
25,571
35,987
28,534
24,275
4,661
0-14
180,670
91,874
88,796
4,661
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
43,045
37,987
34,261
30,534
25,716
21,549
18,249
22,177
19,461
17,651
15,841
13,578
11,541
9,731
20,868
18,526
16,610
14,693
12,138
10,008
8,518
14,518
16,999
15,642
13,434
10,562
7,772
5,934
15-49
211,341
109,980
101,361
84,861
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
14,508
11,434
8,345
12,937
7,694
6,110
4,299
6,336
6,814
5,304
4,046
6,601
50 +
47,224
24,439
22,785
all ages
439,235
226,293
212,942
Source:
Registrar General,Census of India 1961 Age Tables, Paper No. 2 of 1963
(New Delhi:Manager of Publications, 1963):35-100;
Col.(5): derived from proportions married (see Table 3).
A-9
APPENDIX TABLE A-8 Total Population, males, females, married females, by
age groups, India, 1971
[thousands]
age groups
(years)
total
population
males
females
married
females
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0-4
5-9
10-14
88,468
77,121
64,923
45,186
39,790
33,739
43,282
37,331
31,184
3,602
0-14
230,512
118,715
111,797
3,602
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
53,717
46,035
40,584
35,854
31,328
26,634
22,192
27,712
23,484
20,613
18,341
16,354
14,218
12,014
26,005
22,551
19,971
17,513
14,974
12,416
10,178
14,409
20,032
18,962
16,471
13,679
10,453
7,942
15-49
256,344
132,736
123,608
101,948
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
17,858
14,231
10,904
17,288
9,685
7,617
5,757
8,993
8,173
6,614
5,147
8,295
50 +
60,281
32,052
28,229
all ages
547,137
283,503
263,634
Sources:
Cols. (2), (3) and (4): Registrar General, Report of the Expert Committee
on Population Projections (New Delhi:Demography Division, Office of the
Registrar General, 1979), Table 2, p. 11;
Col. (5): Derived from proportions married (Table 3).
A-10
APPENDIX TABLE A-9 Total population, males, females, married females, by
age groups, India, 1976
[thousands]
age groups
(years)
total
population
males
females
married
females
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0-4
5-9
10-14
98,999
86,302
72,652
50,520
44,487
37,722
48,479
41,815
34,930
3,101
0-14
257,953
132,729
125,224
3,101
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
60,112
51,515
45,415
40,122
35,057
29,805
24,834
30,983
26,256
23,046
20,506
18,284
15,896
13,433
29,129
25,259
22,369
19,616
16,773
13,909
11,401
14,320
21,931
21,211
18,569
15,527
12,010
9,178
15-49
286,860
148,404
138,456
111,746
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
19,984
15,925
12,202
19,346
10,828
8,516
6,436
10,055
9,156
7,409
5,766
9,291
50 +
67,457
35,835
31,622
all ages
612,271
316,968
295,302
Sources:
Interpolation based on the annual geometric growth rates between 1971 and
1981 figures at the following rates:
Females
(102.2947)5
= 112.012287
Males
(102.2567 )5
= 111.804392
Total population (102.2750)5 = 111.904472
A-U
APPENDIX TABLE A-10 Total population, males, females, married females,
by age groups, India, 1981
[thousands]
age groups
(years)
total
population
males
females
married
females
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0-4
5-9
10-14
97,086
92,145
82,769
49,587
47,430
43,304
47,498
44,715
39,465
2,601
0-14
272,000
140,321
131,678
2,601
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
69,459
58,572
50,983
44,346
39,120
34,529
29,803
36,296
30,089
25,911
22,611
20,169
18,076
15,842
33,164
28,482
25,073
21,735
18,951
16,453
13,960
14,495
24,218
23,922
20,861
17,875
14,651
11,764
15-49
326,812
168,995
157,807
127,786
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
24,309
19,509
15,464
27,065
12,988
10,308
7,997
13,775
11,321
9,201
7,467
13,290
50 +
86,347
45,068
41,279
all ages
685,159
354,384
330,775
Sources:
Cols. (2), (3), and (4):Registrar General, Report of the Expert Committee
on Population Projections [New Delhi: Demography Division (mimeographed),
1985), Table 1.3, p. 50;
Col.
(5): Registrar General,
Demography Division,
’’Projections of
proportions of married females,” Staff Working Paper, 1986; (Mr. K. S.
Nataraj an).
A-12
APPENDIX TABLE A-ll Total population, males, females, married females, by
age groups, India, 1986 (Medium series projections)
[thousands]
age groups
(years)
total
population
males
females
married
females
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0-4
5-9
10-14
105,373
92,096
91,097
54,050
47,189
46,912
51,323
44,907
44,185
2,532
0-14
288,566
148,151
140,415
2,532
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
82,036
68,649
57,786
50,241
43,579
38,198
33,405
42,950
35,950
29,766
25,586
22,222
19,643
17,407
39,086
32,700
28,019
24,655
21,357
18,556
15,998
15,349
26,938
26,338
23,417
19,994
16,468
13,477
15-49
373,894
193,524
180,371
141,981
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 +
28,417
22,614
17,401
30,178
14,995
11,958
9,061
13,098
13,422
10,656
8,340
15,080
50 +
98,610
51,112
47,498
all ages
761,070
392,787
368,284
Sources:
Col. (2), (3), and (4): Registrar General,Report of the Expert Committee
on Population Projections [New Delhi: Demography Division (mimeographed),
1985), Table 1.3, p. 50;
Co.(5): Registrar General, "Projections of proportions
females," Demography Division, Staff Working Paper, 1986
Nataraj an);
of married
(Mr. K. S.
A-13
APPENDIX TABLE A-12
1961-1991
Number of females by selected age groups,
India,
[ [till pru HF&ndis] ]
age groups
1961
1971
1976
1981(a)
1986(a) 1991(a)
15-19 years
20,868
26,005
29,295
33,164
39,086
43,844
20-24
18,526
22,551
25,214
28,482
32,700
38,655
25-29
16,610
19,971
22,344
25,073
28,019
32,280
30-34
14,693
17,513
19,461
21,735
24,655
27,642
35-39
12,138
14,974
16,814
18,951
21,357
24,297
40-44
10,008
12,416
14,250
16,453
18,555
20,976
45-49
8,518
10,178
11,924
13,961
15,998
18,109
15-49
101,361
123,608
137,302
157,819
180,370
205,803
0-14
88,796
111,797
121,369
131,678
140,415
144,965
15-49
101,361
123,608
139,678
157,807
180,370
205,803
50 & over
22,785
28,229
34,255
41,279
47,498
55,180
All ages
212,942
263,634
295,302
330,774
368,283
405,948
Notes:
a. Includes estimated population of Assam state; the 1981 census was not
taken there on account of social disorder.
Sources:
1961 data:Registrar General, Census of India 1961:Age Tables, Paper No.
2 of 1963 (New Delhi: Manager of Publications, 1963):35-100.
1971 data:Registrar General, Report of the Expert Committee on Population
Proj ections (Delhi:Controller, Department of Publications,1979 ) , Table 2,
p.ll;
1976 data:1976 straight line interpolation between 1971 and 1981 data;
1981 data:Registrar General, Report of the Expert Committee on Population
Proj ections (New Delhi: Demography Division, 1985; mimeo), Table 1.3, p.
50.
1986 and 1991: Medium series projections by Registrar General (1985).
A-14
APPENDIX TABLE A-13 Total population (1981 census) and sample registration
system estimates of crude birth rates (three-year moving average, 198587), India, by states and union territories
(’000)
percent
crude
birth
rate
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
states
1. Andhra Pradesh
2. Arunachal Pradesh
3. Assam
4. Bihar
5. Goa
6. Guj arat
7. Harayana
8. Himachal Pradesh
9. Jammu & Kashmir
10. Karnataka
53,550
632
19,897
69,915
1,008
34,086
12,923
4,281
5,987
37,136
7.82
0.09
2.90
10.20
0.15
4.97
1.89
0.62
0.87
5.42
30.5
36.8
34.2
36.9
19.2
32.0
35.1
30.4
32.5
29.2
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
25,454
52,179
62,784
1,421
1,336
775
26,370
16,789
34,262
316
3.71
7.61
9.16
0.21
0.19
0.11
3.85
2.45
5.00
0.05
22.4
37.6
29.3
26.5
36.4
24.3
31.3
28.6
36.9
32.8
48,408
2,053
110,862
54,581
7.06
0.30
16.18
7.97
24.0
28.0
37.7
29.8
189
452
104
79
6,220
40
604
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.01
0.91
0.006
0.09
26.8
23.7
38.7
28.8
30.8
32.5
23.3
685,185
100.00
32.5
total population
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21. Tamil Nadu
22. Tripura
23. Uttar Pradesh
24. West Bengal
Union Territories
1. Andaman & Nicobar Islands
2. Chandigarh
3. Dadra & Nagar Haveli
4. Daman & Diu
5. Delhi
6. Lakshadweep
7. Pondicherry
INDIA
Sources:
Cols. (1) and (2):Registrar General,Census of India 1981: Key Population
Statistics Based on 5 per cent Sample Data (New Delhi: Registrar
General,1983), Table 2, p. 5;
Col. (4):Sample Registration Bulletin XXII, No. 2 (Dec ember, 1988),Table
3, pp.8-15.
A-15
APPENDIX TABLE A-14 Estimates of crude birth rates (i) based on the sample
registration system; (ii) SRS estimates adjusted by Brass’s method;
couples currently and effectively protected by various methods of family
planning, and family planning acceptors, India, 1961-87
FP acceptors
equivalent
sterilizations
year
couples
crude birth
effectively
protected, all methods
rate
SRS
adjusted
(a)
(’000)
percent
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
1961
1966
1970
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
9,853
n. a.
n. a.
10.4
105
2,262
3,769
105
1,216
1,598
4
49
64
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
36.9
36.6
34.6
34.5
35.2
40.0
38.6
37.4
36.4
35.5
11,815
14,306
14,854
15,283
17,843
12.2
14.5
14.7
14.8
17.0
5,029
5,875
4,324
4,308
6,804
2,481
3,373
1,233
1,638
3,068
100
136
50
66
124
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
34.4
33.0
33.3
33.7
33.7
34.9
34.4
34.1
34.1
34.1
25,258
24,613
24,996
25,353
26,444
23.5
22.5
22.4
22.3
22.8
12,534
4,528
5,505
5,482
6,490
8,663
1,242
1,865
2,165
2,479
349
50
75
87
100
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
33.9
33.8
33.7
33.9
32.9
32.6
32.0
n a
n a
n a
n a
n a
n a
n a
28,183
31,457
36,614
40,685
45,163
49,703
n. a.
23.7
25.9
29.5
32.1
34.9
37.5
n. a.
8,102
11,028
15,056
16,442
18,920
20,569
3,302
4,689
5,750
5,555
6,665
7,084
n. a.
133
189
232
224
269
285
n. a
total
Index
acceptor (’000) 1971=100
(’000)
n. a.
Notes:
a. "The SRS birth and death rates for the period 1970-75, centered around
January 1973 are adjusted for the undercount as obtained by Brass method
[Brass
(1975)
for undercount of deaths
and Brass
(1976)
for
underestimation of births; it involves the correction of the observed
level of fertility by adjusting the age specific fertility rates with
reference to average parities]. The adjusted birth and death rates for
1978 centered around July 1978 are obtained , the extent of undercount
being as indicated by P/F method. The rates for 1980 are also adjusted
to the same extent as in 1978. A quadratic function is fitted to the three
values centered at January 1973, July 1978 and July 1980 and the values
for the individual years are obtained from the function" (p. 13).
A-16
APENDIX TABLE A-14 continued:
Notes (continued):
b. "Equivalent Sterilisations have been calculated by revised formula by
adding the number of sterilisations, 1/3 the number of IUD Insertions,
1/18 the number of equivalent C. C. users and 1/9
the number of
equivalent pill users" (p.159.
Sources:
Col. (2): Sample Registration Bulletin XXII, No. 2 (December, 1988),p. 3.
Col. (3): Sample Registration Bulletin XVII, No. 1 (June, 1983),pp.12-13.
Cols. (4) and (5):Family Planning Programme in India: Yearbook 1986-87
(New Delhi: January, 1988), Table E.l, p. 214;
Cols. (5) and (6): Family Planning Programme in India: Yearbook 1986-87,
Table D.l, p. 159.
Col. (8):Derived from Col. (7).
A-17
APPENDIX A The Standardization Approach
The role
formulae:
of
each component
is assessed according
to
the
following
Change in CBR due to:
1. Age structure of women of
reproductive ages
Wti
(15-49 years)
«
Pt!
2. Marital status
■b 2 P 1 “A-t i,
Wt;l
=s
Pbi
p
i)#(Mti,i MFbi,
■J
(Mti, i -Mi, ± ) i ( A-b 1 z 1
n=7
3. Marital fertility
Wbi
\
( F -b 22 z i
-Fbiz 1 ) « ( A t; 1 , 1 ),(Mt.i, i
4-- f
’
Pt! i=l
4. Sex-composition: Proportion
of women of reproductive
ages (15-49 years) in total
population
( W+; 22
Wbi
(GER)
( Pt; 22
Pt!
where:
ti = initial point in time;
t:s = end of the time period for which change in the CBR is measured;
± = age group of women in their reproductive ages (seven periods:15-19,
20-24,...,45-49);
At = age structure components in age group
1 r
Mt
marital status distribution in age group
F±
age-specific marital fertility rates in age group
W
= number of women of reproductive ages;
P = total population (males plus females).
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