How global is global and how warm is warming

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Title: How global is global and how warm is warming
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WARMING?

ARCH INSTITUTE
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How global is global and how warm is warming?

The Governing Council of TERI
Chairman
Mr D S Seth
Chairman Emeritus
Tata Chemicals Ltd
Bombay House, 24 Homi Mody Street
Bombay - 400 001

Members

Dr A Ramachandran
3 Crescent Road, High Grounds
Bangalore - 560 001
(former Executive Director,
UN Centre for Human Settlements)

Prof. B V Sreekantan
Radhakrishnan Professor
National Institute of Advanced Studies
Indian Institute of Science Campus
Bangalore - 560 012
Mr F C Kohli
Deputy Chairman
Tata Consultancy Services
Air India Building
Bombay - 400 021
Mr R N Tata
Chairman
Tata Industries
Bombay House, 24 Homi Mody Street
Bombay - 400 001

Dr L M Singhvi
High Commissioner for India to Britain
India House, Aldwych
London WC2B 4NA

Dr M S Swaminathan
Chairman
M S Swaminathan Research Foundation
3rd Cross Street
Taramani Institutional Area
Madras - 600 113
Mr R N Malhotra
Chairman
Indian Council for Research on
International Economic Relations
East Court, 4th floor
Habitat Place, -Lodhi Road
New Delhi - 110 003
Mr B R Prabhakara
Secretary
Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources
Block No. 14, CGO Complex
Lodhi Road
New Delhi - 110 003

Dr R K Pachauri
Director
Tata Energy Research Institute
Darbari Seth Block
Habitat Place
Lodhi Road
New Delhi - 110 003

How global is global and how warm is warming?

Tata Energy Research Institute
New Delhi

Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi

© 1996 by the Tata Energy Research Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or any other
means without permission in writing from the publisher.

Printed in India

ISBN 81-85419-19-1

Published by Tata Energy Research Institute, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, Lodhi Road, New Delhi - 110 003 and Printed by
Multiplexus (India), Delhi - 110 054
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Contents
Preface
Introduction........................................................................................................................................................9

Climate system................................................................................................................................................. 9

What is the greenhouse effect?

,..........................................................................................9

What are GHGs, and how and why are they increasing?................................................................... 11
How warm is global warming?................................................................................................................... 14
How global is global warming?................................................................................................................... 15

What are the likely impacts of climate change?........................... ........................................................15

Response strategies....................................................................................................................................... 16
Spectre of climate change and emergence of international agreements and institutions.......... 16
Conclusions....................................................................................................................................................... 19

Preface
The earth s capacity for absorbing and assimilating most human
generated pollutants is large, but limited. As pollution rates rise
due to increased human activity, the natural processes that ab
sorb and assimilate pollutants are eventually overwhelmed,
leading to rising concentrations. In some cases, this can lead to
imbalances in the global environment. In November 1995, the
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), an official
scientific group set up by WMO (World Meteorological
Organisation) and UNEP (United Nations Environment Pro
gramme), concluded that the balance of evidence suggests a dis
cernible human influence on global climate. Average global
surface temperature has increased by about 0.3 °C to 0.6 °C
over the last century and the recent years have been the warm
est since 1860. Global sea level has risen by 100-125 mm over
the past 100 years and much of this could be attributed to tem
perature increases. Temperatures will rise substantially in the
future. If policies to reduce CO2 emissions from current levels
are not implemented, the IPCC estimates that the average global
surface temperature would rise by 2 °C between 1990 and
2100—an average rate of warming greater than any seen in the
last 10 000 years.
Such changes in the earth’s climate would have far reaching
impacts. A warmer future would lead to very high sea level rise
(estimated at an average of 500 mm by 2100). Warmer tempera
tures will also result in a more vigorous hydrological cycle imply
ing more evaporation and more precipitation resulting in more
severe floods and droughts in places. There would be an increase
in rainstorms, tropical cyclones, and other catastrophic events.
To understand the nature and the extent of economic impacts
of climate change better, TERI (Tata Energy Research Institute)
undertook a project titled India country study on global warming
impacts, sponsored by the Ford Foundation. In addition to study
ing the impact of climate change, the study was expected to col
lect, compile, and disseminate data and information related to

global warming in order to create an understanding, spread
awareness, and sensitize people to the risks of climate change.

The publications in the series are:
• How global is global and how warm is warming? Introduces
the problem of global warming and climate change, underlines
the issues and challenges involved, highlights the projections
of rising temperatures and effective responses from the inter
national community.
• Changing coastlines: effects of climate change. Gives an over
view of the issue of sea level rise and its impacts on coastal
zones.
• CO2 mitigation and the Indian transport sector. Deals with the
growing demand for transportation, and the contribution of
motorized road transport to climate change. It highlights the
nature and magnitude of transport-related greenhouse gas
emissions in India, and identifies possible approaches to miti
gate them.
TERI would like to thank the Ford Foundation for providing the
financial support that enabled the publication of this series of
‘popular publications’. Thanks and appreciation go to Ms Preety
Bhandari and Ms Sharmila Barathan for their contribution to
wards Hou; global is global and how warm is warming? Dr Maria
Ligia Noronha for Changing coastlines: effects of climate change,
and Dr Ranjan K Bose for CO2 mitigation'and the Indian trans
port sector. Special thanks go to Dr Chandrasekhar Sinha for his
comments and guidance, to Ms Preeti Soni for coordinating this
endeavour, and to Ms Beena Menon for the production of this
series.

R K Pachauri

9

Introduction
There has been a real, but irregular, increase in global surface
temperature since the late nineteenth century, even as over
the same period there has been a marked, but irregular, reces
sion of the majority of mountain glaciers. Several other forms of
scientific evidence confirm the general belief that progressive
warming is caused by increasing GHGs (greenhouse gases) con
centrations in the atmosphere. However, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding the extent of temperature rise, scale, tim
ing, regional distribution, and related issues.

Climate System
The climate system consists of five components: atmosphere,
ocean, cryosphere (ice), biosphere, and geosphere. The funda
mental processes driving the global climate system are heating
by incoming short-wave solar radiation and cooling by long wave
radiation into space. If the earth had no atmosphere, the average
temperature at the surface would be well below freezing.

An important difference
Earth's climate has changed many times in the last two billion years. But there
is an important difference on this occasion. Sudan experienced two extremely
dry years followed by a year's rainfall in three days in August 1988. In
Bangladesh, the once-in-a-century typhoon surged out of the Bay of Bengal
twice in 20 years. Something significant has disturbed the South Pacific seabed
in a manner that there are large masses of dying coral. (Mintzer M I)

from the interior of the greenhouse, to the atmosphere and then
into space. The warming and cooling processes stabilize the tem
perature inside a greenhouse at a level which is higher than the
air outside.
A mechanism akin to the above, aids in maintaining the earth’s
temperature. The glass in this case is the atmosphere surrounding
the earth whose surface (soil, ocean, and ice) absorbs solar radia
tion and emits it back at much longer wave lengths. Most of the
radiation emitted back, is absorbed by the atmosphere which in
turn reemits it to space. This dynamic interchange of radiation is
controlled by gases in the atmosphere that absorb this radiation,
just as glass does in a greenhouse. It is this natural green
house effect which has made the earth habitable. Figure 1

Incoming solar
radiation 100

A greenhouse gets heated due to the optical characteristics of the
glass, or the plastic sheets used. The glass lets through up to 90%
of the radiation striking it, which warms the air, the soil and the
plants inside the greenhouse. Parallel to this process, a cooling
mechanism comes into play, involving the radiation of energy

Short wave
emitted

Long wave
emitted

25 6

60

9

Reflected

Absorbed 23

Absorbed 46 Reflected

What is the greenhouse effect?

Space

Outgoing solar
radiation 100

Absorbed 106

Absorbed 100

Ocean and land surface

Figure 1. The Earth's heat balance is maintained through complex interactions
with the atmosphere. Radiation that is absorbed at the Earth's surface is reemitted
as infrared radiation at much longer wavelengths. Most of this is then absorbed in
the atmosphere which, in its turn, emits infrared radiation to space.
Source. UNEP/GEMS (1987)

10

presents the above mentioned interactions between the earth
and the atmosphere surrounding it.
In mathematical terms, let us assume that on an average over
a year, the earth receives 100 units of solar radiation. Of this 25
units are immediately reflected back into the space by air and
clouds, and 23 are absorbed by the atmosphere. The balance, 52
units, strike the surface of the earth. All hot bodies emit radia
tion and so does the earth’s surface (six units). The remaining 46
units are absorbed. In addition to this, as the atmosphere heats
up, it radiates 100 units of infrared energy to the earth, leading
to a total of 146. The surface in turn convects up 31 units in the
form of warm air and transmits another 9 to the space. The bal
ance 106 (146 - 31 - 9) are reflected and absorbed by the atmo
sphere.
Now the atmosphere has 23 units originally absorbed from
solar radiation, 31 units of convection and 106 infrared units
from the earth, adding to 160 units. It disposes these by sending
60 to space and redirecting 100 to the earth.
The 60 units that go back into space when added to the 25 re
flected by the atmosphere, 6 by the earth’s surface and 9 infrared
units add to 100, the original radiation emitted by the sun. This
is summarized in Table 1.
The net of 46 units absorbed by the gases in the atmosphere,
explains the greenhouse effect. If the atmosphere contained no
gases, the global surface temperature would be 33 °C cooler.
Such a balance can be easily disturbed. There are several
natural factors which can change the balance and these factors
cause the radiative forcing on climate. This could either be
positive, leading to warming or negative, leading to cooling. Ra
diative forcing only indicates the warming caused by an addi
tional quantity of a gas, but does not reveal the true relative
impact of gaseous emissions, primarily because different gases
have different atmospheric lifetimes. However, human activities
termed anthropogenic can also lead to a change in the balance
and this is referred to as enhanced greenhouse effect, more
commonly known as global warming. This is ascribed to an

Table 1. The Earth’s Radiation Budget
la.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
II
Illa.

IV
a.
b.
c.

Incoming solar radiation
Reflected
Absorbed by the atmosphere
Heating earth surface
Of which reflected into space
Absorption by Earth Surface
Atmosphere's radiation to earth
Earth's radiation
into space
convected to atmosphere
absorbed by atmosphere
Atmosphere budget
Receives from earth
Reflects into space
Absorbs

Heat Balance
Outgoing radiation into space =
=
=
Incoming solar radiation
=

100
25
23
52
6
46 (52-6)
100
146
9
31
106

106
60
46 < This is absorbed by gases
and is responsible for the
Natural Greenhouse Effect

lb + le + Illa + IVb
25 + 6 + 9 + 60
100
la

= 100

imbalance caused by higher levels of certain gases in the atmo
sphere. The presence of an increased quantity of these gases may
lead to higher absorption of radiation and consequent warming
of the atmosphere. If the atmosphere is warmed to higher than
normal levels, it will radiate more energy to the earth’s surface
and as the surface gets heated, it emits not only more radiation
but more water evaporates. Higher evaporation results in in
creased moisture and cloud cover, which blocks the incoming so
lar radiation, thus relieving somewhat the enhanced greenhouse
effect. The net result is a combination of higher temperature, a
drier soil and a wet atmosphere. It is this scenario which has
caught the attention of a wide section of society ranging from the
common man and scientists to international organizations.

11

What are the GHGs, and how and why are they
increasing?
The main GHGs are water vapour, CO2 (carbon-dioxide), CH4
(methane), N2O (nitrous oxide), and CFOs (chlorofluorocarbons).
With the exception of water vapour, all other gases have anthro
pogenic sources. A wide range of natural and human activities
release GHGs into the atmosphere and are termed sources of
GHGs. Similarly, a wide range of natural and human activities
result in the absorption of the GHGs and are termed sinks. In the
atmosphere large natural exchange influx occurs between the
atmosphere and the terrestrial biota and between the atmo
sphere and the surface of ocean waters. Even though the net con
tribution from anthropogenic activities is relatively small, it is
enough to significantly modify the natural balance.

Figure 2. The contribution from each of the human-made greenhouse gases to the
change in radiative forcing from 1980 to 1990. The contribution from ozone may
also be significant, but cannot be quantified at present.
Source. (IPCC, 1990).

Climatic impact of Mt Pinatubo
The eruption of Mt Pinatubo in Philippines in June 1991 stands out from a cli
matic point of view as probably the most important eruption of this century. This
produced a large, transient increase of stratospheric aerosols which resulted In
a surface cooling over a period of two years, estimated from observations to be
about 0.4 °C, consistent with model simulations which predicted a global mean
cooling of 0.4 to 0.6 °C. Some volcanic eruptions such as the above result in
short-lived negative radiative forcing of climate (IPCC, 1995).

As is evident from Figure 2, among the anthropogenic GHGs
emissions, CO2 is the largest contributor to the total increase in
climate forcing, followed by CFOs, CH4 and N2O. Water vapour
in the troposphere is the single most important GHG. However,
its atmospheric concentration is not significantly influenced by
direct anthropogenic emissions. Also, while the contribution
from tropospheric ozone may be important, the available data is
inadequate to accurately quantify the changes in its concentra
tions, or its effect on the climate. Though the role of CO2 in global

warming is substantial, other GHGs are relatively more effec
tive, and are consequently dangerous even at their present trace
level concentrations. A concept known as the GWP (global warm
ing potential) has been developed to evaluate the relative radia
tive effect (and hence, the potential climate effect) of equal
emissions of each of the GHGs. This has been developed taking
into account the differing residence times of the gases in the
atmosphere.
Table 2 furnishes a comparison between pre-industrial and
current concentration levels of these gases.

co2
Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the increase in
CO2 emissions has been the result of a variety of world wide hu
man activities. It is claimed that until 1950, the oxidation of or
ganic matter exposed by tilling of agricultural soils, was the chief

12
Table 2. A summary of key GHGs affected by human activities

Pre-industrial
concentration
Concentration
in 1994
Rate of
concentration
change
Atmospheric
lifetime
(years)

co2

CH,

N2O

-280
ppmv*
358
ppmv
1.5
ppmv/yr
0.4%/yr
50-200*

-700
ppbv*’
1,720
ppbv
10
ppbv/yr
0.6%/yr
12*

zero
-275
ppbv
268S
312s
pptv'
ppbv
0
0.8
pptv/yr
ppbv/yr
0.25%/yr 0%/yr
50
120

CFC-11

HCFC-22 CF4 (a
perfluoro(a CFG
substitute ) carbon)

zero

zero

110

725

pptv
5
pptv/yr
5%/yr
12

PPtv
1.2
pptv/yr
2%/yr
50,000

‘1 ppmv = 1 part per million by volume.
"1 ppbv = 1 part per billion by volume
'1 pptv = 1 part per trillion by volume.
‘No single lifetime for CO, can be defined because of the different rates of uptake
by different sink processes.
•This has been defined as an adjustment time which takes into account the indirect
effect of methane on its own lifetime.
sEstimated from 1992-93 data.
Source: (IPCC, 1994).

source. The main anthropogenic sources of CO2 are the burning
of fossil fuels (with additions from cement production) and land
use changes. While there is uncertainty over changes in CO2 lev
els at the present pace, it is well known that for approximately
the last 18 000 years, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have
fluctuated around 280 ppmv. Figure 3 presents the growth rate
in CO2 concentrations during the last 40 years.
The single largest anthropogenic source of radiative forcing is
energy production and use. Fossil fuels are currently the domi
nant global source of CO2 emissions, and generally accepted to
account for at least half of the warming that has occurred in the
past, and that which is likely to occur.

Figure 3. Growth rate of CO2 concentration since 1958 in ppmv/yr at the Mauna
Loa station showing the high growth rates of the late 1980s, the decrease in growth
rates of the early 1990s, and the recent increase. The smooth curve shows the
same data but filtered to suppress any variations on time-scales less than approxi
mately 10 years.
Source. (IPCC, 1995).

The atmosphere, the ocean and the land (with its plants and
animals), comprise the world’s-three major carbon sinks. The
only sink whose carbon content is known with any certainty is
the atmosphere.

ch4
The natural sources of CH4 include natural wetlands and fer
mentation in the guts of ruminants, especially cattle, releases
from termite mounds, and biomass decay. Anthropogenic sources
include coal mining, leaks in natural gas distribution systems,

13

Analysis of ice cores
The most reliable information on past atmospheric CO2 concentrations is ob
tained by the analysis of polar ice cores. The process of air occlusion lasts from
about 10 years to 1000 years, depending on local conditions, so that an air
sample in old ice reflects the atmospheric composition averaged over a corre
sponding time interval.
Measurements on samples representing the last glacial period (18 000
years before the present) from the ice cores of Greenland and Antarctica
showed CO2 concentrations of 180-200 ppmv, i.e., about 70% of the pre-industrial value (IPCC, 1995).

rice cropping and biomass (wood, wastes, etc.) burning. The con
centrations of methane show a steady increase since 1965. Al
though recent trends show an acceleration of about 1.1%
annually, it must be noted that it was not till the late 1960s that
concentrations of this gas were measured. Longer term trends
have been determined by analyzing air trapped in ice cores. Re
sults derived from the ice core record at Vostok, Antarctica are
presented in Figure 4.
The major sink for anthropogenic methane is the tropo
sphere—its reaction with OH in the troposphere and the OH con
centration being controlled by a complex set of reactions. Soils
also act as a sink for CH4.

Figure 4. Temperature anomalies and methane and CO, concentrations over the
past 220 000 years as derived from the ice core record at Vostok, Antarctica.
Source. (IPCC, 1995).

CFC
n2o
There are many small sources of N2O, both natural and anthro
pogenic, which are difficult to quantify. The main anthropogenic
sources are from agriculture (especially the development of pas
ture in tropical regions), biomass burning, and a number of in
dustrial processes (e.g., nitric acid production). Natural sources
are probably twice as large as anthropogenic ones.
N2O is removed from the atmosphere, mainly by photolysis
(breakdown by sunlight) in the stratosphere.

CFCs, unlike other greenhouse gases, are not produced natu
rally. They are a product solely of industrial activity. CFCs are
used in refrigeration, in aerosols, as solvents and foam blowing
agents. These CFCs have a twin role to play. First, in their capac
ity to trap the infrared radiation emitted by the Earth, they act
as greenhouse gases. Second, they have a high ozone depleting
potential. This is because they are relatively stable and pass
through the troposphere to reach the stratosphere, where in the
presence of strong sunlight they break down, releasing free chlo

14

rine. This chlorine combines with O3, converting it to O2. The CIO
molecule combines with nascent O to form O2 and nascent chlo
rine, which in turn reacts with O3 once again. This continues for
the residence time of the CFC molecule and leads to the deple
tion of the ozone layer surrounding the earth. Hence, CFCs pose
a serious threat to the ozone layer, which protects life on the
earth from solar ultraviolet radiation.

How warm is global warming?
We do know that concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
have grown significantly since the mid-eighteenth century. By
1992, CO2, CH, and N2O had increased by nearly 30%, 145%, and
15% respectively from their levels before the industrial revolu
tion, tending to warm the surface of the earth resulting from
changes in the use of fossil fuels, the practice of agriculture and
land use. Figure 5 presents the projected anthropogenic emissions
(1990-2200) plotted against the final stabilized concentration.
If CO2 emissions continue at present levels, concentrations in
the atmosphere will increase at a nearly constant rate for two
centuries. They will reach about 500 parts per million by volume
(ppmv), approaching double the pre-industrial level of 280 ppmv
by the end of the next century.
Studies indicate that CO2 can only be stabilized at 450 ppmv
in the atmosphere if global anthropogenic emissions decline to
1990 levels in about 40 years time, and thereafter decline sub
stantially. In the event of a decline in emissions to the 1990 levels
in 110 years, concentrations could be stabilized at 650 ppmv; if it
took 240 years they would only level off at 1000 ppmv—nearly
four times of the pre-industrial level. The higher the emissions
during the forthcoming years, the lower will they have to be, sub
sequently.
Stabilizing methane concentrations at today’s levels would
involve reducing anthropogenic emissions by eight per cent; do
ing the same for N,0 would mean cutting them by more than half
their present emission levels.

Figure 5. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions accumulated from 1990 to 2200 plotted
against the final stabilized concentration. For example, accumulated emissions of
between 1200 and 1600 GtC lead to stabilization at a concentration of 550 ppmv.
The figure also shows the amount of CO2 (in GtC) remaining in the atmosphere at
each stabilization level. The difference between accumulated emissions and atmo
spheric increase represents the accumulated uptake by the ocean and the marine
and terrestrial biospheres. The range of results from different models is indicated
by the shaded area.
Source: (IPCC, 1995).

The average global surface temperature has increased by
about 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last century, and recent years have
been amongst the warmest since 1860. The global sea level has
risen by between 100 mm and 125 mm over the past 100 years,
and much of this may be related to temperature increase. Night
time temperatures over land have generally increased more than
day time ones.

15

Temperatures will rise substantially in the future. The IPCC
(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change), established in
1988 and sponsored by WMO (World Meterological Organisation)
and UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) esti
mates, if policies to reduce CO2 emissions from current levels are
not implemented, the average global surface temperature will
rise by about 2 °C between 1990 and 2100: its lowest and highest
estimates give a range of about 1 °C to about 3.5 °C. In every case
the average rate of warming would probably be greater than any
seen in the last 10 000 years, but the actual changes over years
and decades would include considerable natural variability. Be
cause of the inertia of the oceans, which take time to heat up,
temperature will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 even if
concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere have been stabilized
by then (Houghton J, 1996).

How global is global warming?
Some regional changes have also become evident. While, for example,
the mid-latitude continents have experienced the greatest warming
in winter and spring, there have been a few areas of cooling, such as
the north Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation has increased over high lati
tudes in the northern hemisphere, particularly in winter.
There is clear evidence of changes in some extremes of climate
in some regions. The proportion of rain falling during heavy
storms over the contiguous states of the United States of
America has increased, and several large areas of the world now
have fewer frosts. While in some areas the weather has become
more variable, in others it is less so. There is not enough evi
dence at present to determine if there have been consistent
changes in the variability of the climate, or during extreme
weather on a global scale over the 20th century.
Very little can be said about likely local or regional changes
partly because we do not yet know enough about the effects of
aerosols, and how they may change in the future. The IPCC will
encourage more work on this, but some features are predictable.

The land will warm more than the sea, in winter. The greatest
warming up will be in the northern latitudes in winter, but there
will be little warming up of the Arctic in summer. All these
changes are associated with identifiable physical mechanisms
(IPCC, 1996).
In the global context, a comparison of the CO2 budget for India
indicates that we contribute to 2.2% of the global CO2 emissions.
India’s per capita emissions are a sixth of the world average.

What are the likely impacts of climate change?
Climate change will impact agriculture and forestry, natural ter
restrial ecosystems, hydrology and water resources, human
settlements, energy, human health, air quality, oceans and
coastal zones, seasonal snow cover, ice, and permafrost.
Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies
are particularly sensitive to temperature and soil moisture.
Emissions are significantly larger at higher temperatures and
with increased soil moisture.
The net emissions of CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems will be
elevated if temperature increases the respiration at a faster rate
than photosynthesis, or if plant populations, particularly large for
ests, cannot adjust rapidly enough to changes in climate.
Warmer temperatures will also produce a more vigorous hy
drological cycle. This means that there will be more evaporation

Evidence for warming
Long term data extracted from ice cores in Vostock, show a strong correlation
between CO2 concentrations and temperature measurements going back
160 000 years.

Over the last 100 years or so, the global temperature records suggest that a
warming of 0.5 °C has occurred, and that the decade of the 1980s was the
warmest. This pattern roughly parallels that of fossil fuel use and injection of
GHGs into the atmosphere.

16

and more precipitation. This in turn will lead to more severe
floods and droughts in some places, and there may be heavier
rain storms. We do not yet know enough to say whether or not
tropical cyclones and other severe storms will increase, decrease
or change in their geographical distribution.
The most widely discussed global impact of greenhouse warm
ing is the increase in average sea level. It is expected to rise be
cause the oceans expand as they get warmer and because
glaciers and ice-sheets will melt. The best estimate projects a rise
of about 500 mm between now and 2100—the lowest estimate is
150 mm and the highest 950 mm. Sea levels would continue to
rise at a similar rate in future centuries even if GHG concentra
tions were stabilized by the year 2100, and would carry on doing
so even after global average temperatures stabilized (IPCC,
1996).

Response strategies
An overview of the response strategies to such a problem has
been presented below:
• wait and watch till we are certain of the problem;
• adapt to climate change;
• use countermeasures to offset global warming; and
• limit GHG emissions/concentrations.
The key question here is that what would constitute absolute
certainty? While it is believed that the scientific community has
reached a consensus about the likely average rate of warming, it
is unlikely that estimates at the regional level would be available
within a decade. Hence, one could wait and watch till we are cer
tain of the effective measures that need to be taken.
The second response would be to take steps to adapt to climate
change. The strategy could include any or more of the following
measures: improvement in coastal defences for small islands and
low lying regions; water management; change in agricultural
practices including greater crop diversity and tolerant strain se

lection; and enhanced national and international stocks of food
and other resources.
Another response option could be to counteract with geo-engi
neering solutions, those that either block some of the solar radia
tion that reach the earth or reflect the solar radiation reaching
the earth. Very specifically this would involve injecting dust into
the atmosphere to absorb some solar radiation there, using small
particles to seed more clouds over the oceans so as to reflect
more solar radiation, launching dust or small plates outside the
atmosphere to block some solar radiation before it reaches the
earth. However, there may be several problems with the afore
mentioned geo-engineering solutions.
Yet another response to the problem of global climate change
could be one of limiting greenhouse gas emissions/concentra
tions. There is no doubt that this option is widely debated and
acknowledged as probably one of the best strategies to be fol
lowed globally. This option stands out due to the joint benefits
(both local and global) that it would have. For e.g., the promotion
of efficient use of energy would relieve one to some extent of the
energy security problem, local pollution problems, and so on.

Spectre of climate change and emergence of
international agreements and institutions
While the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment at
Stockholm drew attention to the issue of sustainable develop
ment, the need to effectively manage global commons, led to the
emergence of various conventions and protocols, and the estab
lishment of requisite institutions.
A significant milestone reflecting the growing consciousness
about the environment was the June 1992 UNCED (UN Confer
ence on Environment & Development). This conference held at
Rio de Janeiro also referred to as the Earth Summit, was at
tended by numerous heads of State and three major documents
were approved.

17
A non binding declaration voicing the nexus between environ
ment and development, concerns for environmental degrada
tion and outlining a set of principles regarding the rights and
responsibilities of nations toward the environment. This was
the Rio Declaration for Environment & Development.

Box 1
UNFCCC
This Convention provides a framework within which the international community
could deal with the issue of climate change. It clearly acknowledges that climate
change and its impact are a common concern and that anthropogenic activities
have resulted in increasing concentrations of GHGs which exacerbate the natu
ral greenhouse effect leading to additional warming and which may adversely
impact natural ecosystems and humankind. The Convention, however, also
draws attention to the uncertainties attached to predictions regarding climate
change. A note is attached on the “largest share of historical and current global
emissions of GHGs which has originated in developed countries, that per capita
emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of
global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their so
cial and development needs"
The commitments as listed in this Convention, are based on "common but
differentiated responsibilities". Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC clearly demarcates
the responsibilities of developing and developed countries. Further it states that
the developed countries should provide “new and additional financial resources
to meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in comply
ing with their obligations----- " They shall also provide financial resources as
well as transfer technology needed by developing countries to meet the full in
cremental costs of implementing measures.
The Convention provides for the establishment of a Conference of Parties,
as the supreme body of the Convention, to review regularly the implications of
the Convention and any legal instruments that may be adopted by the COP. It
was also decided that the first session of the COP will take place no later than
one year after the date the Convention comes into force. The first COP was held
at Berlin in March 1995.
Under Article 21 on interim arrangements for the Convention, the role of the
Global Environment Facility was outlined. The GEF was entrusted with the op
eration of the financial mechanism on an interim basis, and upon it being re
structured and its membership being made universal, it was to graduate to the
body that would fulfil the requirements of a financial mechanism.

• A statement focussing on principles for sustainable manage
ment of forests, which should subserve as the basis for a future
international agreement on forestry.
• An action plan to steer nations and the international commu
nity toward the goal of sustainable development, called the
Agenda 21.
Two international treaties were also signed at UNCED and these
are UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) and
UNCBD (UN Convention on Biological Diversity). The main fea
tures of the two Conventions are given in Box 1 and Box 2.

Box 2
UNCDB
The UNCDB, recognizing the value of biodiversity and various aspects attached
to it, including among others ecological, genetic, social and economic, registers
concern that it is being reduced significantly as a result of anthropogenic activi
ties. It, however, recognizes the dependence of many indigenous local commu
nities on bioresources and the desirability of sharing equitably benefits arising
from the use of traditional knowledge, innovations and practices relevant to con
servation of biological diversity and sustainable use of its components. The way
in which biodiversity is distributed, namely, in-situ and ex-situ, has influenced
the structuring of this Convention.
In addition to a provision for establishing areas for protection of biodiversity,
regulation, management and development of such resources both within and
outside such areas, in-situ conservation is also provided for. It is envisaged that
this will be accomplished through international cooperation including financial
support to the developing countries, to the extent of agreed full incremental
costs (Articles 8 and 20). Ex-situ measures are meant to complement in-situ ones, preferably in the country of origin.
The UNCDB, like the UNFCCC, has stipulated separate commitments for
developed and developing countries. Further, the developed countries are en
couraged to provide and facilitate under fair and favourable terms, access to
and transfer of technologies relevant to conservation and sustainable use of
biodiversity in developing countries. For technologies under IPR protection, it is
hoped that it would be on a basis which recognize and are consistent with ad

equate and effective protection.
This Convention has provided for a COP, and also the use of GEF as an in
terim financial mechanism.

18

The following table furnishes the list of ongoing projects in India which are funded by the GEF.

Table 3. Ongoing GEF projects in India
Project

Implementing
agency

Executing
agency

Duration
(years)

Total cost
(million S)

GEF share
of cost

Co financing

Optimizing development of small hydel
resources in hilly regions

UNDP

MNES

5

7.5

7.5

Rs 224.8 m by Gol

Bio-energy from industrial, municipal,
and agricultural waste

UNDP

MNES

3

5.5

5.5

Rs 142 m by Gol

Renewable resource management

World Bank

IREDA

7

430

26

IDA: $ 100 m
IBRD: S 75 m
SDC: S 4m
DANIDA: $ 50 m
Local: S 175 m

Greenhouse gas pollution
prevention project

USAID

MNES/ NTPC/
IDBI/IREDA

5

19

Solar thermal power

World Bank

Rajasthan Energy
Development
Agency (REDA)/
Private Independent
Power Producer
(IPP)

5

245

49

MNES: S 10 m;
REDA: $ 10 m;
Equity from IPP with
balance from
Kreditansalt fur
Wiederaufbau (KfW),
Germany

19

institutions
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established in 1991 as a pilot pro
gramme to provide funding to developing countries for activities to protect the
global environment. It is jointly managed by UNDP, UNEP and the World Bank.
In 1994, negotiations to restructure the Facility and replenish its funds were
concluded. The restructuring imperative was in response to the directives in
Agenda 21 and the two conventions on climate change and biodiversity which
identified GEF as their financial mechanism and called for its restructuring. The
focal areas for projects and activities that GEF funds are climate change, bio
logical diversity, international waters and depletion of the ozone layer. Activities
dealing with land degradation, particularly desertification and deforestation, in
so much as they relate to the focal areas, are also eligible for funding.
The responsibilities of the three managers of GEF are delineated as follows:
• UNDP is responsible for technical assistance and capacity building. It runs a
SGP (small grants programme) for NGOs and community groups world over.
■ UNEP is responsible for catalysing the development of scientific and techni
cal analysis and advancing environmental management in GEF financed
activities. It manages STAP (Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel), an
advisory body that provides assistance to GEF.
• World Bank is the repository of the Trust Fund and is responsible for invest
ment projects. It aims to mobilize resources from the private sector in a
manner consistent with GEF objectives and national sustainable develop
ment strategies.
The GEF's governance structure includes an Assembly, a Council and a Secre
tariat. The Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) was set up to moni
tor the progress in the implementation of Agenda 21 nationally, regionally and
globally. Its mandate includes encouraging an integrated approach toward envi
ronment and development decisions, and policies.

up to UNCED and also the conventions and institutions that
have come into place after the UNCED. However, the extent and
effectiveness of these processes and institutions are largely de
pendent on the willingness of nation states to initiate actions, as
also the ease of availability of appropriate technologies, building
capacity to identify and address environmental issues and, lastly
but not the least, financial resources.

References
Houghton John. 1996. Danger signal. In Our planet: vol 7(5) . The
United Nations Environment Programme Magazine for Sustain
able Development.
2. IPCC. 1995. Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate
Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios.
Houghton J T, Meira Filho L G, Bruce J, Hoesung Lee, Callander B
A, Haites E, Harris N, Maskell K (eds). Cambridge University
Press.
3. IPCC. 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change.
Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working
Group I Report. Part of the working Group I contribution to the
Second Assessment Report of the IPCC.
4. Mintzcr. M I. Living in a Warming World. In Confronting Climate
Change: Risks, Implications and Responses. Cambridge: Cam
bridge University Press. 382 pp.
5. UNEP/GEMS. 1987. Environment Library No 1. The Greenhouse
Gases, UNEP.
1.

Further reading
Conclusions
While several questions are still unanswered and may not be for
a few years to come, it is clear that the world is slowly moving
toward a negotiated agreement to limit the risks of rapid climate
change and minimize unavoidable damages. There is growing
concern for the environment, as evinced in deliberations leading

IPCC. 1990. Climate Change: the IPCC Scientific assessment. Re
port prepared for IPCC by Working Group I. Houghton J T, Jenkins
G J and Ephraums J J (eds). World Meteorological Organisation/
United Nations Environment Programme.
2. WRI. 1994. World Resources 1994-95: A guide to the global environ
ment. In collaboration with United Nations environment pro
gramme and United Nations Develppraggt Programme.

1.

C • io o

/-V

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Michael Grubb. 1990, Energy Policies and the Greenhouse Effect'.
Policy Appraisal, vol 1. The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
4. Global Environment Facility. 1995. The Restructured GEF: Ques
tions and Answers. Washington, D C: GEF.
5. Graedel T E, Paul J Crutzen. 1993. Atmospheric Change'. An Earth
System Perspective. New York: W H Freeman & Co.
6. BL Turner II, William C Clark, Robert W Kates, John F Richards,
Jessica T Mathews & William B Meyer (eds). 1990. The Earth as
transformed by human action: global and regional changes in the
Biosphere over the past 300 years. Cambridge: Cambridge Univer
sity Press and Clark University.

3.

Rudiger Dornbusch, James M Porteba (eds). 1991. Global Warm
ing: Economic Policy Responses. The MIT Press.
8. Stephen H Schneider. 1989. The Greenhouse effect: Science &
Policy. Science: vol 243. 771-781.
9. V Ramanathan. 1988. The Greenhouse theory of climate change: A
test by an inadvertent global experiment. Science: vol 240. 293-299.
10. ADB. 1994. Climate Change in Asia: India Country Report. Re
gional Study on Global Environmental Issues.
11. Prodipto Ghosh, Akshay Jaitly (eds). 1993. The Road from Rio: En
vironmental and Development Policy Issues in Asia. New Delhi:
TERI.

7.

Contents
Preface

Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 9
Climate system..................................................................................................................................................9

What is the greenhouse effect?..................................................................................................................... 9
What are GHGs, and how and why are they increasing?.................................................................... 11
How warm is global warming?.................................................................................................................... 14
How global is global warming?.................................................................................................................... 15

What are the likely impacts of climate change?.......................... ;......................................................... 15

Response strategies . ......................................................... .............................................................................16
Spectre of climate change and emergence of international agreements and institutions..........16

Conclusions....................... ,

................................................................................................................. 19

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